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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 55 p-47 p-58 p-116 p-84 p.
The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 72 p (72 p).
The first trading day of the week was calm. The EUR/USD currency pair worked the critical Kijun-sen line and could not confidently overcome it. All three indices of business activity in various sectors of the US economy exceeded the forecast values, but no market reaction to these data followed, which is quite strange. The US currency could get some support. Thus, now there is a situation where technique is more important than the foundation. Given the price rebound from the critical line, the upward movement may resume with the first resistance level of 1.1461. A reversal of the MACD indicator upwards can confirm the completion of a downward correction. If the bears still push the critical line, the downtrend on the pair may resume. The main topic in the foreign exchange market is still Brexit. Recall that until November 21, the parties can still sign an agreement, and if this happens, both the euro and the pound sterling can significantly increase their attractiveness in the eyes of traders. Also this week, the Federal Reserve's decision on the key rate will be published, and relevant comments on monetary policy will be given. A change in the key rate is not expected, but new information on monetary policy may be provided.
Trading recommendations:
The correction continues for the EUR/USD pair. Since the Kijun-sen line could not be overcome, the upward movement can resume, and the long positions remain relevant in small lots with a target of 1.1461. A reversal in the MACD will serve as a signal to open long positions.
Sell orders can be opened not earlier than fixing the price below the critical line with targets of 1.1328 and 1.1307, since in this case the initiative will be again in the hands of bears.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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