14.11.201808:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP / USD Forecast for November 14, 2018

GBP / USD

Politics in the UK and the EU have managed to move forward in the newly stalled Brexit talks. The main provisions of the treaty, including the Irish border, were agreed yesterday. There will be no hard border. Today, Theresa May held a cabinet meeting, which will enable us to learn about the future plans of European and British politicians. The date of the EU Special Summit will perhaps be clarified. At the moment, sterling rose by 200 points - closing the day that occurred 119 points.

It may have been a "soft" Brexit or a good deal. However, does this mean that amidst a global strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the euro, there will be a rise in the pound? Great Britain successfully left EU. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the country will inexplicably gain economic advantages over the rest of the world regions. Rather, on the contrary, it will lose a little. The negative trade balance of Great Britain, as it has been since the end of 1990s still remains. The industrial production traditionally lags behind European; and there are no prerequisites for changing the balance. Form these positions, we can expect a strong collapse of the British currency after its preliminary speculative psychological growth. However, a significant increase in the next positive news regarding Brexit may not take place. The closer date for the UK legal exit from the EU may take place on March 2019 or any closer date.

At the moment, the price has a positive vector on both charts. During the day, the price moves over the indicator balance line (red) and the Marlin oscillator signals a rising trend, which yesterday the price has been able to keep a stronger growth. The Marlin oscillator also indicates a growing trend. However, whether or not that another pound would increase its resistance to the linear trend line of the price channel on the daily chart is a rhetorical question. It is possible that the balance line resistance on H4 will not be able to overcome (1.3054), then the Marlin oscillator signal lines on both scales will be turned down from the border values, which serves a signal to turn. In this case, we will be waiting for the price to support the trend line of the price channel in the region of 1.2800. But, if the price fixing above this line takes place, we expect growth to the designated upper target.