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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 95 p-53 p-116 p-78 p-85 p.
The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85 p (89 p).
The European currency with grief in half, but still continues to adjust against the US dollar. However, it can be seen with the naked eye that the downtrend persists despite the intersection of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator, and traders are just waiting for the moment to open new short positions. There were no macroeconomic reports from the eurozone today during the day, and the report on retail sales in the US for September was much stronger than the forecast values, both with and without automobiles. Thus, the grounds for strengthening the US dollar during the day were, as usual, more than for strengthening the euro. The resignation of Brexit Secretary for the UK, Dominic Raab, should also be mentioned. This event refers to the EU indirectly, as the resignation does not mean the failure of the negotiations. However, this is another bad bell. From our point of view, if the European currency does not receive serious fundamental support in the near future, the downtrend will resume, perhaps even with a new force. From a technical point of view, the "Golden cross " was formed, but it is extremely weak, and the price is not fixed above the critical line, but, on the contrary, the Kijun-sen line went under the price. Thus, long positions are now recommended to be considered very carefully or not at all. A turn of the MACD indicator downwards will indicate the completion of the upward correction.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair maintains an upward correction. Thus, it is not recommended to open short positions until the current correction is completed. If the pair is fixed below the Kijun-sen line, and the MACD indicator turns down, it will serve as a signal for the opening of shorts with targets of 1.1218 and 1.1199.
It is not recommended to open long positions now, as the buy signal is very weak. In the event of a fundamental support of the European currency, it will be possible to consider the possibility of opening long positions in small lots.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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