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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 105 p-111 p-120 p-212 p-191 p.
The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 148 p (130 p).
The British pound collapsed during November 15 due to a new resignation in the British Parliament. This time, the Minister of Brexit Dominic Raab resigned voluntarily. And, like all previous ministers, in protest against Theresa May's exit plan from the EU. What do we have in the dry residue? On the one hand, Theresa May and EU leaders claim that the Brexit agreement has been approved. The only thing that is needed is to have this bill approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. However, on the other hand, four ministers have already resigned as a sign of disagreement with Theresa May's foreign policy. And, from our point of view, these mass resignations are a very strong indicator of the real circumstances and processes taking place in the UK government. Now it is difficult to say whether the Parliament of the UK will accept Theresa May's Brexit option. Maybe they will. But the pound once again collapsed and simply ignores all the words of British politicians that the agreement has "almost" been reached. We believe that only thing that can save the British pound now is official information that the agreement was approved in Parliament and signed with EU leaders. Promises that the issue will be resolved soon will no longer be arguments for traders. No less important component in the collapse of the pound is the failed statistics on retail sales. The official report showed growth of only 2.2% against the forecast of 3.0% yoy. Thus, throughout 2018, the macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain has only been disappointing. And after Brexit things can get even worse...
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair sharply resumed its downward movement and strengthened below the level of 1.2817. Thus, now short positions with the target of 1.2677 are relevant again, and the pound is likely to expect a new long fall.
Buy-positions are now irrelevant, and, given the official data from the British Parliament, will become relevant soon. The pound will need very strong fundamental information to form a more or less long uptrend.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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