21.11.201816:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The decision of the European Commission on Italy did not affect the euro. OECD lowers global GDP growth forecast

The euro is expected to decline after the decision of the European Commission to apply the procedure of excessive deficit to Italy. Despite the fact that such a decision was quite expected, speculative players tried to take advantage of these moments and continue the decline of the European currency, which is still limited to the intermediate support level of 1.1365. It is likely that new buyers will try to build in this range the lower limit of the new ascending channel with a reserve for maximums in the 15th and 16th figure.According to the data, the European Commission will apply to Italy the procedure associated with excessive deficits, since the draft budget of Italy does not meet the eurozone's debt criteria. Let me remind you that Italy's public debt is 131.2% of GDP, which exceeds the upper limit of 60%, provided for by the rules of the eurozone. Given the fact that the new Italian government plans only to increase spending in the next few years, the national debt can continue to grow.

The representative of the European Commission Dombrovskis said that the situation in Italy is a problem for all eurozone countries, but despite this, the members of the European Union will decide on the recommendation of the European Commission within two weeks. Most likely, this will not end well for the Italian authorities.As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it remained unchanged. The failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1400, which was formed in the first half of the day, led to a decline in the euro, but the downward trend did not continue. A break of 1.1400 will lead to a new wave of growth of EUR / USD to the maximum of the week in the area of 1.1470. However, in this scenario, it will be difficult to expect a large upward trend, the formation of which requires a more serious downward correction.The demand for risky assets is also limited due to Sino-US trade relations. Yesterday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer blamed China's leadership for continuing to take economic measures that threatened the American industry. It is clear that representatives of the US administration act on behalf of Donald Trump, but such attacks are unlikely to lead to the achievement of a treaty. Let me remind you that all attention to this issue is concentrated on the planned meeting, which will take place in a few weeks.Today, the report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was published, in which forecasts for the next few years were presented. Thus, the OECD lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%, while in 2020 it is also expected to reach 3.5%.The OECD still forecasts US GDP growth in 2018 at 2.9%, while the forecast for the growth of the eurozone economy in 2018 was revised down to 1.9% from 2%.As for Japan, the OECD lowered its growth forecast this year to 0.9% from 1.2%, and the forecast for China's GDP growth to 6.6% from 6.7%.The OECD expects the US Federal Reserve to raise the key rate to 3.25% -3.5% by the end of 2019.With regard to the British pound, the data on the growth of borrowing of the UK government did not lead to significant changes in the market. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, borrowing from the UK government in the period from April to October of this year amounted to 26.7 billion pounds. Let me remind you that the Office of Budget Responsibility UK projected that for the entire fiscal year, the government will borrow 25.5 billion pounds. As we can see, the indicator has already gone beyond, although the fiscal year ends only at the end of March.

As for the technical picture of GBP / USD, a breakthrough of the support level of 1.2760 may hit the stop orders of the pound buyers, which will provoke a new wave of decline in the trading instrument with access to the lows of October this year of 1.2660 and 1.2620. To return the initiative to the buyer's side, consolidation above the resistance of 1.2820 is required, which will return the trading instrument to this week's highs of 1.2880.