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19.12.201808:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD for December 19, 2018

Long-term review

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GBP/USD

Today, the British pound has one task – to "remove the reaction" of the market to the Fed rate hike and the regulator's further plans for monetary policy. But tomorrow the task and the problem will be different – to prepare for the UK's exit from the EU without a deal. This was stated yesterday directly to the business community (and citizens of the country) Theresa May. However, we are waiting for the Parliament's decision.

Today, inflation indicators for England are also coming out, forecasts for them are somewhat pessimistic. The base CPI for November is projected to decline from 1.9% y/y to 1.8% yoy, the total CPI may also fall – forecast 2.3% y/y against 2.4% y/y earlier. The retail sales index for the same period dropped from 3.3% y/y to 3.2% y/y. The balance of production orders from CBI for December is expected to decrease from 10 to 6.

Such initial data suggest a decrease in the pound without the price exceeding the resistance of 1.2732. The target for a decline is 1.2507 and further to 1.2400.

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