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Last week, the formation of a downward medium-term model continued. The closing of the week occurred just below the weekly CP 1.1386-1.1368, which indicates a high probability of a further decline.
Downward movement has priority, so any growth must be used to search for favorable prices for the sale. The nearest resistance is NKZ 1/4 1.1403-1.1395. When testing this zone, you need to focus on finding a pattern for selling a tool. The goal of the fall is the NKZ 1/2 1.1276-1.1267, so sales above the current price will be profitable if the stop loss does not exceed 30 points.
The most favorable prices for sale are located within the NKZ 1/2 1.1454-1.1445. The test of this zone will be decisive for the medium-term downward movement. As long as the instrument is trading below the zone, the probability of updating the January low will be above 50%.
Formation of the reversal pattern will require the absorption of the Friday fall. This will allow the pair to move into the accumulation phase, the work in which will be carried out from the boundaries of the flat. This phase will not change the mid-term bearish momentum, however, the model implementation time will be longer. It will be possible to talk about the cancellation of the downward movement when the closure of the US session occurs above the level of 1.1454.
Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
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