31.01.201910:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 01/31/2019

No wonder investors were skeptical about the refinancing rate of the Federal Reserve System, which was reflected in the almost absent demand for interest rate futures. The Federal Commission for open market operations, from which specifics were expected regarding the timing of the refinancing rate increase, as well as the macroeconomic conditions necessary for holding such events, presented an unexpected surprise. Not only did nobody hear any answers to the questions posed, but also Jerome Powell said that if necessary, the Federal Reserve System would be able to mitigate the parameters of monetary policy by reducing the monthly amount of assets repurchased. The whole thing is not only that the Federal Reserve in a fairly short period of time from a planned tightening of monetary policy proceeds to its easing, but the fact that such a reversal is possible only in one case. The Fed knows that the state of affairs in the economy is not the best, and there are all prerequisites for its deterioration. So it is not surprising that after the statements of the head of the Federal Reserve System, the single European currency cheerfully went up.

The pound did not grow so briskly, as it was constrained by the statements of European officials, who forced all believers to grieve in the successful completion of Brexit. British parliamentarians have already sent Theresa May to Brussels for a new agreement, and even packed her bags. There they once again stated that the United Kingdom will not receive any new agreement in return for the existing one. They hinted that the British Parliament can adopt as many resolutions as they like, but it still will not change anything since they will not calm down in Europe until British companies leave the European market.

After such an impressive jump, which occurred yesterday evening, it is worth waiting for a rollback, and only a reason is needed. Such a reason could be preliminary data on Europe's GDP for the fourth quarter, which should show a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%. Of course, the Fed made it clear that it was waiting for the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation in the United States, but so far this deterioration has not yet come. But in Europe, it happens right before our eyes.

The euro/dollar currency pair, after a short-term stagnation, nevertheless managed to break out and draw a pulsed candle, against an informational background. It is likely to assume that after such a move there will be a logical pullback of 1.1480-1.1460.

The currency pair pound/dollar showed less volatility, but still logical upward. It is likely to assume that, in the values of 1.3150-1.3170, there may be stagnation with a reversal.