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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 82p - 159p - 73p - 144p - 90p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 110p (119p).
On Thursday, January 31, the GBP/USD pair is adjusted close to its local highs. The lack of continued downward movement makes one doubt that the pair is ready for a downtrend, which, from a fundamental point of view, would be very likely. The fact is that, from our point of view, no particular positive news from Britain has recently been received. We do not consider the amendment on the impossibility of the country's exit from the EU without a "deal" a positive signal and a signal that there will be no disorderly Brexit. However, for most of the market, apparently, this and similar information is enough to resume buying the pound. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker, meanwhile, speaking to the European Parliament, said that all EU leaders unanimously opposed the amendments to the current version of the agreement on Brexit. Thus, according to the EU, the agreement reached in November 2018 is the only possible and most attractive for both parties. What does this mean for Theresa May? Only that it will have to try very hard to convince the EU leaders. How to do it? Make concessions on other contentious issues. What will happen? The fact that the UK Parliament will not approve new concessions to the EU. A vicious circle. At least, now this whole situation looks absolutely stalemate, despite the mass of agreements reached between the parties. Less than 2 months remains until the Kingdom leaves the EU.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its downward correction. To open new longs with the target level of 1.3220, it is required to secure the pair above the Kijun-sen line.
Sell orders in small lots can be considered with a target of 1,3004, but after the MACD indicator turns down and the price is below the critical line.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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