05.02.201914:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Brent drew the "bears" to flight

Rumors of problems with global positions make it possible for the "bulls" on the North Sea oil to feel comfortable near the maximum levels for the last two months. The factor of US sanctions against Venezuela is, to a large extent, taken into account in futures quotes, but the fact that the European Union has recognized the opposition leader as the head of the South American country suggests that their expansion is not far off. Paired with the active reduction of production by OPEC and the reluctance of Italy and Greece to buy black gold from Iran, this allows Brent to gain a foothold above $ 62 a barrel.

Even though the US sanctions against Caracas look less ambitious than those against Tehran, their influence is already being felt. According to Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the restrictions imposed on the country can reduce global shipments by 0.5-1%. At the same time, the fall in oil production in Venezuela, Libya, and Iran, as well as the active fulfillment of contractual obligations by Saudi Arabia, suggest that OPEC's desire to balance the market is brought to life. In January, the cartel pumped 31.02 million b / d, reducing production by 930 thousand b / d for the month. Alas, but so far Moscow cannot do what it promised, for which Riyadh has been criticized. Instead of the planned cutting of 228 thousand b / d compared to the base October, in January, Russia reduced the figure by 47 thousand b / d. However, there are reserves, which allows the bulls of Brent and WTI to look to the future with optimism.

Rising oil prices are due to the throwing of a white towel "bears". As a result of the week by January 29, their short positions decreased by 27%. At the same time, buyers are not in a hurry to make serious decisions. Long-term financial managers have increased by a modest 4.5%. In my opinion, investors felt that the bottom has already been passed, but they doubt that the current bullish drivers are able to push the quotes of futures for the North Sea variety much higher. Last year's story with a sharp increase in the activity of American mining companies amid a Brent rally above $ 65 a barrel is still fresh in memory.

Dynamics of oil prices and speculative positions

Positive emotions to fans of black gold are added by Iran's complaints to Greece and Italy, without explaining the reasons for not wanting to use the grace period set by the United States to buy oil from Tehran. Let me remind you that this factor at one time allowed the "bullish" effect of American sanctions against a Middle Eastern country to be smoothed over. If it does not work, then long-ranked financial managers receive additional whists.

The growth of quotations of Brent and WTI is constrained by a stronger dollar after the release of data on the US labor market in January. If the "bearish" forecasts of large banks on it begin, finally, to work, oil will receive a new impetus to continue the rally.

Technically, there is a correction in the direction of 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern in 5-0. The rebound from resistances, as a rule, are used for sales.

Brent, the daily chart