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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 37p - 40p - 50p - 44p - 30p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 40p (45p).
On the first trading day of the week, the EUR/USD currency pair continued, as we expected, the downward movement and reached both the support level of 1.1301 and the level of 1.1290, which we called the target for the previous week. Today, the pair passed almost 45 points, on Friday – 30. No important macroeconomic data were published in the euro area and in the United States on February 11. Therefore, there is nothing to analyze from a fundamental point of view. However, technical factors are now clearly at the top and the important moment has come for the currency pair, if not the moment of truth, since most likely the pair will not be able to overcome the area of 1.1270 – 1.1290. The tool rebounded from this area for at least four times already. The fifth time is not excluded. Again, we turn to the foundation. Are there good reasons for the further strengthening of the US dollar? Global, no. The fact that the US economy is much stronger and feels better than the eurozone economy cannot pull down the pair forever. Macroeconomic indicators are falling in Europe, and a new "shutdown" is possible in the United States, since Donald Trump may not agree with the Democrats on immigration policy, and the key rate in 2019 may not be raised even once. Thus, we are still waiting for the pair to turn up, but it is best to respond to trend indicators (MACD, heiken Ashi). A reversal of these indicators to the top will be the first signal for a possible change in trend. At the same time, MACD may start to discharge because it is at its lowest positions.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues a weak downward movement. Thus, shorts with targets around 1,1274 are still relevant. Below, the pair is unlikely to leave, but before the reversal of the MACD indicator to the top, it is recommended to maintain short positions.
Buy-positions can be considered as small lots no earlier than fixing the price above the Kijun-sen line with an aim for the resistance level of 1.1414.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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