21.02.201901:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. February 20th. Results of the day. The minutes of the Fed meeting will unlikely give new information to the market

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 82p - 82p - 72p - 45p - 82p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 73p (69p).

On Wednesday, February 20, the EUR/USD currency pair continues inactive trading. There was a certain surge in volatility the previous day, which ended with the passage of 82 points during the day, but today market activity has decreased again. Obviously due to the complete absence of any macroeconomic reports in the European Union and the United States. Thus, the euro continues to crawl up with difficulty. The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting will be released tonight. We believe that no important information can be gathered from this protocol. If the Fed would have thought about stopping a reduction in its own balance sheet, this would have been known already. Smoke without fire and sewed in the bag can not be hidden. Therefore, we believe that there will be no market reaction to the evening publication of the minutes. However, it should still be recognized that there is always a 5% chance of a surprise. Therefore, it is not worth ignoring such a fundamental event. If the information that the Fed is going to stop moving assets from its own accounts to the open market is correct, this can create pressure on the US currency, as it will be the second sign of a slowdown in the US economy and the Fed's willingness to stop monetary policy tightening. From a technical point of view, the "golden cross" is weak, and the resistance level of 1.1345 has not been overcome. Therefore, longs can only be considered in small lots. Overcoming the Ichimoku cloud will strengthen the buy signal.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD tested the level of 1,1345. If this target is overcome, the upward movement will continue with a target of 1.1398 and this target can be traded. A reversal of the MACD downwards indicator will indicate the beginning of a downward correction.

Sell orders will become relevant not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the price below the critical line, but even in this case, the potential for the pair to fall below 1.1250 is very small.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.