21.02.201912:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 02/21/2019

The content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations fully coincided with the expectations of traders who, before publication, sold the dollar. As expected, the Federal Reserve System tried to exclude direct indications of the possibility of mitigating the parameters of monetary policy from the text of the protocol. However, the text of the protocol states that members of the Committee should be flexible in terms of developing decisions on the refinancing rate. Therefore, it becomes obvious.

However, the next meeting of Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker again ended in nothing. The blood oaths about the complete mutual understanding of the parties and moving in the right direction, uttered for the umpteenth time, still seem to be able to influence the tender public. After all, this only explains the constant growth of the pound during such meetings, caused by the belief that Brexit will run smoothly and smoothly.

Beginning today, the publication of preliminary data on business activity indices in Europe. If in the service sector it should grow from 51.2 to 51.4, then in industry it is expected to decline from 50.5 to 50.3. As a result, the composite index of business activity is likely to grow from 51.0 to 51.1. Almost simultaneously with preliminary data on indices of business activity in Europe, there are data on borrowing of the public sector in the UK, which could be reduced by 11.1 billion pounds. In the previous month, data was increased by 2.1 billion pounds. So, the expectations in the Old World are to some extent quite good and can be the reason for a slight strengthening of a single European currency and pound. However, most interesting things will happen in the late afternoon after a whole block of American statistics begins to be published. The first will be published data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which should be reduced by 43 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications may be reduced by 10 thousand, and repeated ones by 33 thousand. Also, orders for durable goods may increase by 1, 7%. In addition to all this, housing sales in the secondary market are likely to increase by 0.8% after a 6.4% decline in the previous month. However, questions raise forecasts based on a preliminary assessment of business activity indices. After all, if the business activity index in the service sector can increase from 54.2 to 54.3, and in the manufacturing sector it should decrease from 54.9 to 54.7, then it is not entirely clear why the composite index of business activity is expected to grow from 54.4 to 55.1. Of course, he must grow, but not so much.

The euro / dollar currency pair, after a brief upward move, reached a value of 1.1370. This reflects accumulations in earlier periods. It is likely to assume that the current stagnation of 1.1325 / 1.1370 will result in a rollback to 1.1315 / 1.1300.

After the impulse move, the currency pair pound / dollar reached a value of 1.3000, after which we saw a phase of stagnation-pullback. It is likely to assume that the quotation will approach the previously passed level of 1.3000, where it will continue the amplitude wagging near it.