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By the end of the trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 118 points, as a result of which it had a steady downward movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we already have not just a correction from the level of 1.3300, but a full-fledged move, where the quote managed to reach the psychological level of 1.3000. The riddle of so many sustainable moves lies precisely in the information and news background, and now in detail. The ECB meeting on Thursday was the impetus for strengthening the dollar, where Mario Draghi, literally directly stated that he was resuming the quantitative easing program. Naturally, this kind of news just collapsed the euro, and because of the high correlation, the pound reached the bottom. The negative background does not stop there, Brexit is bursting from all sides, and British Prime Minister Theresa May lost the support of almost the entire cabinet of ministers (with the exception of two of her members) due to the crisis with the country's withdrawal from the EU. Members of the British government are in favor of May's resignation no later than July.
The current trading week expects to be extremely volatile. On the way, we have as many as three votes in the British Parliament on March 12,13, and 14, of course, regarding Brexit.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in the States, where a slowdown is expected from 2.3% to 1.9%.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the quotation reached a psychological level of 1.3000, where the day was started from the gap, temporarily overcoming this level. Now, the gap is already closed, and the quotation is trying to go into a logical correction, but it should be understood that the negative background in Britain remains and there is no getting away from it, at the same time there are also enough short positions. Thus, I do not exclude that the current correction will change into a rollback - stagnation along the level of 1.3000, waiting for the upcoming voting.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions for buy are considered in case of a clear fixation higher than 1.3045 with a perspective of 1.3070 (the first point).
- Positions for sale are considered in case of a clear price fixation lower than 1.2950.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, interest has changed to ascending against the background of an attempt to work out the level of 1.3000. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects maintain a downward mood on the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 11 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 56 points. In case of stagnation along the psychological level, the volatility will remain within the daily average.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3130 *; 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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