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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 95p - 118p - 43p - 63p - 44p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 73p (86p).
On Thursday, March 28, the European currency again fell against the US dollar and came close to the lower boundary of an important support area of 1.1200 -1.270. Even a weak report on US GDP for the fourth quarter failed to save the euro. It was expected that GDP would be 2.4% y/y, but in reality the figure was only 2.2%. However, contrary to common sense and logic, the euro continued to fall. This can only mean one thing - traders have made a choice between the dollar and the euro in the medium term. Only one thing can save the euro currency now - powerful and large pending orders to buy at around 1.1200. If they do not help, the euro can overcome an important area of support and thus provoke an even stronger fall. Despite the fact that from a fundamental point of view for the euro currency, the situation slightly became better after the Fed refused to further unload its balance sheet and raise rates, it seems that this was not enough to convince traders to buy euros. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Therefore, market participants are encouraged to continue to follow the trend, that is, to sell the pair, especially since all technical indicators currently clearly indicate a downward movement. On the last trading day of the week, the pair could begin to adjust, which would be logical due to the desire of traders to take profits.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to move down and it overcame the support level of 1.1234. Therefore, short positions are currently recommended with a target of 1,1166. There are still doubts about the ability of overcoming the area around the level of 1.1200.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen – red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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