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For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 84 points, as a result of having a breakdown of an important price level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a pulsed downward move, where the quotation overcame an important level of 1.1180 in the face of the local minimum of April 2. This coordinate, 1.1180, held the quotation for quite a long time, if you look at the trading chart, we see that the quotation clearly felt its support even on March 7, where the value test was recorded, which came from the accumulation of 2017-2016. The level fell, and went to the Bay of short positions. The news and news background, in principle, did not have any data in it. The only thing I discuss in the media is the request of the British Conservative Party for Theresa May's resignation roadmap, but so far there is no response. So what happened to the EURO? To tell, in fact, it is difficult, there are only hypotheses. Probably, there is a kind of recording of transactions of very large players, such as Deutsche Bank. And for this possible reason, we see such an inexplicable decline.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have only basic orders for durable goods in the United States, where they expect a slight increase.
United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Mar): Prev. -0.1% ---> Forecast 0.2%
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after a pulse move up to 1.1141, a periodic point of support was found and a stagnation of versatile doji-type candles was formed. In this case, a rollback looks most logical, since there is a substantial oversold. However, referring to earlier declines and the lack of logic in them, we can assume that at this stage we will simply see a stagnation of 1.1140 / 1.1165. Traders, in turn, take a waiting position and work on the principle of "border breakdown" when placing trade orders.
Based on the data available, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- We consider buy positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1165.
- Positions for sale are considered in the case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1140.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term, there is a downward interest on the general background of the market. In case of stagnation, indicators on smaller TFs can arbitrarily jump.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily rate.
(April 25 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 18 points. In the event of a breakdown of stagnation, volatility will increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1180; 1,1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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