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For the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair again showed a low volatility of 50 points, as a result of having stagnation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after the inertial move, the quotation found a periodic pivot of 1.2865, where, against the background of general overheating of short positions, it formed a stagnation with an estimated correction. The information background, in principle, did not have any harsh statements regarding the UK & EU divorce process. The only thing that took off was the statement made by French President Emmanuel Macron on the subject of disagreement between the countries of France and Germany on Brexit, but it had no effect on the general market background.
"We do not have absolute agreement on the issue of UK exit from the EU. At some point, it will need to be found, " explained Macron.
The news background had data on the volume of orders for durable goods (mar m / m) in the United States, where it was expected to grow 0.7%. However, as a result, it received a more rapid jump by 2.7%.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on US GDP for Q1, where a slowdown is expected from 2.2% to 2.0%, which could put pressure on the dollar.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is replete with statistics and events, where we will see the meeting of the Bank of England and the Fed. The most current events are displayed below.
Monday
17:00 MSK - Speech by the head of the Bank of England Carney
Tuesday
United States 17:00 MSK (Mar): Prev. Index of pending sales in the real estate market (m / m) (Mar) -1.0% ---> Forecast 1.0%
Wednesday
United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Apr): Prev. 55.1
United States 15:15 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector from ADP (Apr): Prev. 129K ---> Forecast 175K
United States 17:00 MSK - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) from ISM (Apr): Prev. 55.3 ---> Forecast 55.0
United States 21:30 MSK - FOMC Press Conference
Thursday
United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Index of Business Activity in the construction sector (Apr) 49.7 ---> Forecast 49.8
14:30 Moscow time - Bank of England meeting followed by Kearney England performance
United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Mar): Prev. -0.1% ---> Forecast 0.2%
Friday
United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Index of business activity in the services sector (Apr): 48.9 ---> Forecast 50.9
United States 15:30 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (Apr): 196K ---> Forecast 180K
United States 15:30 MSK - Unemployment rate (Apr): Prev. 3.8% ---> Forecast 3.8%
United States 17:00 MSK - Non-manufacturing Business PMI (PMI) from ISM (Apr): 56.1 ---> Forecast 57.2
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a correction attempt, but so far we only have a small pullback with the border of 1.2915. It is likely to assume that the pair, after all, is overheated by short positions, and a pullback followed by a correction is a rather realistic scenario. Traders consider such a campaign, if the price is fixed above 1.2920, then the move to 1.2935-1.2960 is possible. At the same time, traders carefully analyze the recent pivot point, in case the bearish interest persists and we head to the main pivot point 1.2770.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, a rising interest was born against the background of a rollback. Intraday and mid-term perspective preserves downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily rate.
(April 26 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 28 points. If supported by the continuation of the news background, volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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