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According to the results of the previous week, the dollar index showed maximum growth since the beginning of March.
The tension in trade relations between Washington and Beijing remains in the focus of investors' attention.
Although trade war harms both the US and the rest of the world, there is no doubt that the US is holding the blow more easily, which explains the continuing demand for the US currency.
On Wednesday, the minutes of the FOMC meeting in May will be published in the US. The so-called "minutes" of the Fed can have a strong impact on the dollar if the protocol contains a forecast for the US economy for the current and next years, or will be given relatively clear guidelines for the future monetary policy of the Fed. The more optimistic the forecasts and statements of the regulator are, the stronger greenback will be able to strengthen against its main competitors.
The euro retreated throughout the previous trading week. Despite the fact that the data on the eurozone cannot be called strong, the fall of the single European currency is largely due to the possible effect of a slowdown in global growth on the economy of the currency bloc.
It should be noted that for most of this year, the ECB did nothing that warned about these threats. If trade relations between the United States and China do not improve over the next few weeks, the upcoming meeting of the European regulator promises to be bleak.
This week, indicators of business activity in the eurozone and the IFO report on Germany will be published. If the data is weak, the EUR/USD pair may fall to the level of 1.10. If the numbers are strong, then the euro may form a springboard for further recovery.
For the pound, the main problem is still Brexit. There is no progress in this process, which increases the risks of implementing the "hard" scenario.
Last weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that she intends to propose a new version of the "divorce" agreement with the EU for consideration by the House of Commons.
According to her, this will be a new, bold proposal with an improved package of measures. The head of the Cabinet of Ministers believes that this option should be supported by parliamentarians.
In the coming week, there will be April releases on inflation and retail sales in the country. It is expected that consumer spending may increase, but inflationary pressure should be restrained.
Despite the fact that the mark of 1.2700 is an important support level for GBP/USD, we can not exclude the fall of the pair below 1.26.
This week, investors will also follow the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from May 23 to 26 and can be the decisive moment for the "United Europe" project.
According to most experts, the party of eurosceptics will significantly improve their positions, which may complicate the task of choosing the next head of the European Commission and approval of the EU budget.
The defeat of the UK ruling Conservative Party can accelerate the resignation of Prime Minister T. May and increase the chances of disordered Brexit. At the same time, the high performance of the Italian "League of the North" may be the reason for the dissolution of the coalition government and the holding of new elections in the country.
It is assumed that good results for the extreme right and the extreme left will be bad news for the euro and the pound.
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