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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p - 27p - 45p - 102p - 50p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 55p (52p).
The third trading day of the week went well for the European currency. Since May 30, the euro's non-stop growth continues, which has not yet been interrupted even for a correction. However, the correction still has to be, the MACD indicator is very overbought. Today, European macroeconomic statistics did not disappoint traders. The composite index of business activity in the manufacturing sector exceeded the forecast (51.8 against 51.6), the index of business activity in the services sector also turned out to be better than traders' expectations (52.9 against 52.5). Retail sales in April rose by 1.5%, which is lower than in the previous month, but fully in line with the forecasts of experts. Thus, there were no reasons for selling the euro at the European trading session. Nor did they appear in the US session. The ADP report on the change in the number of workers in the private sector recorded a slight increase of 27,000 in May (forecast +180,000). The US dollar began to strengthen against the euro literally in the last half hour thanks to the US index of business activity in the ISM services sector, which turned out to be higher than expected (56.9 against 55.5). Perhaps this particular index will start the euro/dollar pair's downward correction. In general, we would like to note that, despite the "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell last night, the euro has hardly strengthened due to the Fed's speech. First, growth began a few days earlier. Secondly, the rhetoric does not mean a reduction in rates in the near future. But in the medium term, his words, coupled with the disappointing statistics from the US in recent years may put an end to the hegemony of the dollar in 2019.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to trade on the increase with a target of 1.1317 before the reversal of the MACD indicator, which will signal the beginning of a correction.
Short positions can be re-considered if the bears manage to consolidate back below the critical line. In this case, the immediate goal will be the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud.
In addition to the technical picture also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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