19.06.201906:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD for June 19, 2019

EUR/USD

Everything is bad for the euro on Tuesday. Eurozone's trade balance for April was 15.3 billion euros against expectations of 16.4 billion, the eurozone ZEW business sentiment index for June fell from -1.6 to -20.2 points, Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB might lower the rate further and directly buy back assets on its balance sheet "in case of anything." In the US, the number of housing starts in May was 1.27 million against an expectation of 1.24 million and the previous figure was revised up from 1.24 million to 1.28 million.

As a result, the euro broke through the support of the MACD line on a daily scale, dropping 25 points in a day.

Today, the Fed decides on monetary policy, the head of the regulator Jerome Powell will make comments. What is the intrigue? Markets are expecting three reductions this year. Expectations are naturally very high. If the Fed makes it clear that there can only be one (in July or later), then the euro will go down in disappointment with investors.

The first goal of the euro is 1.1156 - the Fibonacci level 110.0% on the daily chart, consolidating below the level opens the way to the second target of 1.1075 - the Fibonacci level 123.6%. All indicators on the daily and four-hour charts are decreasing.