21.06.201908:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The weakening of the dollar has stopped, but it has not ended (we expect the EURUSD and AUDUSD pairs to continue growth after the consolidation period)

On Thursday, the markets continued to play the decisions of world central banks - the Central Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and especially the Fed - on monetary policies, which resulted in a rather noticeable increase in demand for risky and commodity assets. And of course, it should be noted separately the strong growth of gold prices, which, as a result of the promising fall in the dollar, most likely receives support.

Of course, investors took into account the results of meetings of Japanese and British regulators, but still the main agent of peace was the Federal Reserve, which essentially opened the door to the coming lower interest rates. Now, they are wondering how many rate cuts will be shown this year in the markets- two or three 0.25% each. If earlier bidders generally allowed one decrease in the cost of borrowing, then immediately before the Fed meeting and after it, the number of expected rate cuts increased to three. It is supposed that the first will take place already at the July meeting, the next two, respectively, in September and in December.

Significant changes were made to the forecasts for lower rates following the July meeting. If at the beginning of this week, the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates showed an increase in expectations of a reduction in the rate of 62% with a small percentage, then today, it has grown to 71.9%. This indicates that the markets are almost certain that on July 31, the Fed will lower its key interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 2.00% –2.25%.

In this regard, what should we expect with the dynamics of the dollar? In our opinion, the weakening of the US currency will only continue, despite the fact that the ECB and other global central banks will demonstrate "dovish attitude" in every possible way, trying to keep up with the Fed. We believe that after a possible pause today on the eve of the "Big Twenty" in Japanese Osaka, its fall will resume on Monday. By the way, this may also be facilitated by some likely softening of positions between the US and China after the meeting of the leaders of these countries, which may cause a new wave of optimism, and it will also add pressure on the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

EURUSD pair is below the level of 1.1300. It may adjust down to 1.1265. After that, resume growth to 1.1345. In any case, to continue the upward trend, the price must overcome the level of 1.1300.

AUDUSD is trading below the level of 0.6935. It can also adjust to 0.6900 before resuming growth to 0.7010. In any case, to continue its growth, it is necessary to overcome the price level of 0.6935.