25.06.201914:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Brent goes to the path of war

The report about the American drone shot down by Iran and Donald Trump's intention to launch a military strike on Tehran allowed the oil to mark the best day rally in 2019. The market immediately recalled the situation of the end of the last century when armed conflicts in the Middle East led to an increase in Brent quotes above $100 a barrel. For the first time, the US President changed his mind to attack the enemy, limiting himself to the expansion of economic sanctions. In modern conditions, they are no less effective tool than an armed invasion.

In May, deliveries of black gold from Iran to other countries fell to 225 thousand b/s. The average monthly figure is 993 thousand b/d this year, which is the lowest value since 1979. The country's GDP fell by 6% while inflation jumped to 37%. Tehran is experiencing serious problems against the background of economic isolation and constantly threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supplies of all liquid petroleum products in value of 21% in the world and a third of the maritime transportation of oil passed through it. Supply disruptions are clearly a bullish factor for Brent and WTI.

Dynamics of oil supplies from Iran

Black gold is supported by the hope of resolving the conflict between the US and China during the Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit. The belief in prolonging the agreement to reduce production by OPEC and other producing countries, including Russia, as well as the American dollar, has significantly fallen recently.

A trade war between the world's leading economies contributes to disrupting supply chains, slowing global trade and GDP, as well as reducing the growth rate of oil demand. If duties are removed, the situation on the black gold market will improve significantly.

Brent and WTI can help OPEC. Moscow refused to directly answer the question of whether it would agree to extend the term of the Vienna agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million b/s until the end of 2019. At the same time, the Russian Federation does not get tired to emphasize the role of the alliance with the cartel in stabilizing the oil market. The country is well aware of the price at which this is achieved. By the end of the week on June 14, exports of black gold from the United States amounted to 3.4 million b/s, which is close to the historical maximum that occurred in February (3.6 million b/s). At the same time, imports from OPEC to the States fell to a 30-year bottom. Loss of market share is an important aspect, especially for Russia, which can afford oil at $40 a barrel.

Support from black gold fans has weakened in front of the US dollar. Despite the fact that the Fed and wishes of Donald Trump, the federal funds rate did not lower in June. The Central Bank hint at a weakening of monetary policy in the near future became a catalyst for the sales of the USD index.

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $ 64.1 per barrel is a good sign for the bulls. Their main task is to keep this level. It turns out that you can count on the continuation of the rally to $68.4 and $72.8 but the risks of implementing the 5-0 pattern with targets below the December lows will increase.

Brent daily chart