26.06.201910:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on June 26. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Most FOMC members consider it necessary to stimulate the economy

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 39.1178

The second trading day of the week ended for the EUR/USD pair with a downward movement to the moving average line. Despite the fact that the level of consumer confidence in the United States decreased from 131.3 to 121.5, and Jerome Powell's speech was full of words about "increased risks" again and the fact that most members of the monetary committee are inclined to reduce the rate or introduce other incentive measures. At the same time, Powell said that inflation is approaching 2.0%, a level that is targeted. It remains only to understand why the reaction of traders was exactly the same, and not the opposite. After all, there was no positive news from the States yesterday. Accordingly, there were no grounds for strengthening the US dollar. If yesterday's news calendar were empty, the correction could be attributed to technical factors. But there was news. Thus, today will be important to move and the behavior of the price around it. If the euro/dollar holds above this line, the upward trend of the pair will continue. If not, the euro may return to a downward trend. Today, another important report will be released in the States – on orders for durable goods. It is expected that the main indicator will show an increase of 0.2% in May, after a 2.1% drop in April. However, if the real value of the main indicator is lower than +0.2%, it can return the bulls to the market.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1292

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1414

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair started a downward correction to the moving average. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the turn of Heiken Ashi up and buy the pair again with a target of 1.1414.

It is recommended to sell the euro currency after traders consolidate below the moving average line, which will change to a downward trend, with the first targets of 1.1292 and 1.1230.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.