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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -167.6032
On Tuesday, July 2, the pound/dollar currency pair is trying to resume a downward trend. On the strength of the bulls, we can once again judge by the behavior of the pair over the moving: it was not possible to overcome the level of 1.2756 with three attempts. Thus, now the US dollar has received a little fundamental support, and the British pound has nothing to cover this trump card since there were no positive reports and reports from the Foggy Albion. Today will be the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, but it is very unlikely that he will tell the markets anything interesting. Carney and the British regulator took a wait-and-see attitude. Changes in monetary policy can be expected only when it becomes clear how the UK will leave the EU, whether it will happen at all, and when it will happen. Candidates for Prime Ministers can promise to withdraw the country from the jurisdiction of Brussels at least 2 weeks, but do not forget that any initiative of any Prime Minister must be approved by the Parliament, which consists not only of conservatives. Thus, the promises of Boris Johnson about Brexit before October 31 may not come true, and we will hear a stream of excuses from a possible Prime Minister, in which the responsibility will fall on Parliament. In general, even with the new Prime Minister, the Brexit process can easily drag on for another year or more, which is unlikely to support the British currency.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2634
S2 – 1.2573
S3 – 1.2512
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2695
R2 – 1.2756
R3 – 1.2817
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair is trying to resume a downward movement. Thus, before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up, you can sell a pound sterling with a target of 1.2573.
It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair in small lots with targets at 1.2756 and 1.2817 after the price is fixed back above the moving average. In this case, the bulls will receive a new opportunity to form an upward trend, but now they have frankly little strength.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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