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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a fall to the correctional level of 50.0% (1.1278). The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% (1.1318). Traders learned how the levels of business activity in the European Union and America in the manufacturing sector have changed over the month. The European index could not please traders, it remained in the "red zone" - 47.6. At the same time, the index of business activity in the US remained in the "green zone" - 50.6, and the second version of the index (ISM) rose to 51.7. Thus, the markets recorded an improvement in business activity in America. The US dollar immediately received support from traders. Now, to develop success, the pair needs to consolidate below the Fibo level of 50.0%, which will increase the chances of continuing to fall in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% (1.1238). Today, unfortunately, the calendar contains very little news. The producer price index in the EU, and nothing in the United States. Thus, the demand for the US dollar today may decline slightly. The emerging divergences today are not observed in any indicator.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a fall towards the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278). I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1238, with the stop-loss order above 1.1278, if the closing is performed under the level of 50.0%. I recommend buying the pair with the goal of 1.1318 if it will be rebounded from the Fibo level of 50.0% and with the stop-loss order under 1.1278.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair performed consolidation under the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). Thus, on July 2, the fall of the pair's quotes may be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% (1.2437). There is no single indicator of emerging divergences today. In the UK, meanwhile, the debate over Brexit between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson continues. The public is very much concerned about the scenario of leaving the EU without a deal, the possibility of which is not rejected by both candidates for Prime Ministers. Johnson believes that the UK has a large enough "airbag", which will withstand Brexit without a deal. Jeremy Hunt is of the opinion that you need to do everything to avoid Brexit without a deal, even if you have to postpone the release date to a later date again. All this in no way brings us closer to clarity on the issue of Brexit but may affect the election of the Prime Minister. The fact that Johnson won all the preliminary rounds of the election does not guarantee him a victory in the last round, the results of which will be known in three weeks. Too harsh rhetoric about the "hard" Brexit can scare voters away from his candidacy and force them to focus on a more calm Hunt.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a consolidation under the correction level of 50.0% (1.2644) on the new grid of Fibo levels. Thus, the fall of the pair can be continued in the direction of correction levels of 61.8% (1.2612) and 76.4% (1.2571). The Forex market is morally ready now for a new fall of the pound/dollar pair. Today's speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is unlikely to change this state of the market to the opposite since he has no reason for hawkish statements. Accordingly, the pound is unlikely to receive news feed.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pair GBP/USD closed below the Fibo level of 50.0%. I recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.2612 and 1.2571, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.2644. I recommend buying the pair with targets at 1.2677 and 1.2717 if the closing above the Fibo level is 50.0% and stop-loss order under the level of 1.2644 (hourly chart).
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