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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -162.8840
On Wednesday, July 3, the currency pair pound/dollar continues to fall and may update the minimum of 1.2512 in the coming days. The clouds over Brexit continue to thicken. The UK Treasury Department is sounding the alarm, warning Prime Minister candidates that financial losses from a possible "hard" Brexit could be catastrophic. However, it seems that Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson are fully focused on Brexit and continue in their election statements to promise an early exit from the European Union. The most interesting thing is that no one knows for sure what kind of consequences the "tough" Brexit will have. The fact that it does not bode well for Britain is clear, but the government has no alternative to this option. By the end of this month, the name of the new Prime Minister will be known, and what will change? In fact nothing. Theresa May left her post because she could not convince Parliament to vote for her "deal" with the EU. There will be no new negotiations with the EU. Thus, what can the new Prime Minister offer to the Parliament? Either "hard" Brexit or nothing. "Hard" Brexit has already been rejected by Parliament as an alternative way out. In general, the fundamental background of the British currency remains extremely negative. From time to time, positive news comes for the pound, mainly from overseas, but even they cannot cause the formation of an upward trend on the pound/dollar pair.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2573
S2 – 1.2512
S3 – 1.2451
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2634
R2 – 1.2695
R3 – 1.2756
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is recommended to continue to sell the pound sterling with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2512 until the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.
It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair in small lots with targets at 1.2695 and 1.2756 after the price is fixed back above the moving average. However, to do this, the bulls will need fundamental support, which will be extremely difficult to obtain.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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