11.07.201907:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on July 11. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Donald Trump's policy forces Jerome Powell to ease monetary policy.

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 87.2579

Last night, we wrote about Jerome Powell's first speech in Congress. In short, Powell did not change his rhetoric, compared with the meeting in June, when many traders and experts regarded it as the readiness of the US regulator to reduce the key rate. Thus, even a strong NonFarm Payrolls report could not change Powell's mood. One of the major factors affecting (negatively) the US economy, which Powell noted, was trade wars. Is it worth noting that all the trade wars that are now taking place or may begin in the world, provoked by Donald Trump, who has long believed that the rates should be reduced, and the "expensive" dollar is not necessary for the country? Thus, if Powell goes to reduce the key rate, the head of the White House immediately kill three birds with one stone. First, the US economy will be stimulated, which will contribute to its acceleration. Secondly, the dollar will become cheaper (at least, such a reaction of the currency market will be logical against the background of monetary policy easing). Third, servicing the US public debt will become a little easier. Also, you can add such a moment to compete with the European Union and China will also become easier because of the cheaper dollar. In general, for Trump, the Fed's rate cut is necessary as air. Especially a year and a half before the expiration of his presidential term and the new elections for which Trump has already announced his candidacy.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1169

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is fixed above the moving average. Now, therefore, it is recommended to consider the purchase of the euro with the goals of 1.1292 and 1.1353 before the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi down.

It is recommended to buy the US dollar after traders consolidate back below the moving average line, which will change the trend to a downward one, with the goals of 1.1230 and 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.