18.07.201907:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on July 18th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The British economy may fall by 3% in 2020

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -65.0080

The British pound also began to adjust at the trading on Wednesday, July 17. This correction is still very weak. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility of the UK is preparing to publish a report, according to which, the country's economy as a result of the "hard" Brexit will lose 3% of GDP in 2020. Something similar was previously voiced by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. It seems that the economy of the Kingdom will have a hard time in the case of disordered Brexit, everyone understands. But there is no alternative to this option. Only to abandon Brexit in general, which indirectly and covertly sought by Laborites, calling for a second referendum. In general, the epic with the release of Britain from the EU continues and will occupy the front pages of publications at least until October 31. Is it worth saying once again that all this uncertainty and economic forecasts do not add strength to the pound, and that traders are confident that the British currency is worth buying? Both channels of linear regression eloquently show the direction of the current trend. The UK retail sales report for June may affect the course of trading, especially if the real value is worse than forecasts. Then the bears will be happy to resume selling the pound/dollar pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2421

S2 – 1.2390

S3 – 1.2360

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2451

R2 – 1.2482

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a weak upward correction. Thus, now, it is recommended to wait for its completion(Heiken Ashi turn down) and sell the pound sterling with the goals of 1.2390 and 1.2360.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2543 and 1.2573 not earlier than the price consolidation above the moving average line, but with the minimum lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.