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For the previous trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed low volatility, 33 points. As a result, the pivot point was kept, forming a pullback from it. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that a rapid descent led us to the area of the level 1.1180, where, by regularity, the quotation felt a support and as a fact, slowed down and turned around. As discussed in the previous review, traders working on the movement began to insure themselves on July 16, fixing the previously received profit in case of a rebound, and, as a fact, were not mistaken. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the levels 1.1180 - 1.1100 retain the global downward trend and the entire focus of attention is focused on them.
The news background of the previous day had statistics on inflation in Europe, where, as expected, the freezes were in place, but were accelerated from 1.2% to 1.3%. There is published data on the construction sector in the United States, but here, we have a decline. The number of building permits issued in June decreased from 1,299M to 1,220M, with a forecast of 1,300M. The volume of construction of new homes also shows a decline, from 1.265M to 1.253M. Thus, the pivot point was supported not only by the pressure of buyers, but also by the news background. Moving on to the information background, here, as discussed in the previous review, there are worries about the divorce process. The new European Commission President for Ursula von der Leyen said that she was ready to revise the release date from October 31 to a later date if there are objective reasons.
In an interview with Sky News, Ursula von der Leyen noted:
"I do not see Brexit as the completion of something, it is a starting point for building a new relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. That is why we must be especially careful with each other. Brexit in any case is very difficult, therefore, in the presence of objective reasons, the extension and postponement of Brexit's time must be permissible. We must do everything possible to prevent hard Brexit. "
On the part of England, these steps for revising dates are not so relevant, since in the statements of Boris Johnson, we have repeatedly heard that it was most desirable to leave the EU on October 31 in any outcome.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, where growth is expected from 209K to 216K.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation has already reached the previously passed support in the form of a periodic level of 1.1245. It is likely to assume a temporary freeze in the range of 1.1230 / 1.1255, where it is possible to expect a regrouping of trading forces and the placement of future deals.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider:
- Positions for the purchase are considered yesterday from the value of 1.1225, now it is progressing with profit taking.
- Positions for sale are paused. Possible consideration will go after a clear stop.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term are variable in nature, currently signaling a sale. Intraday perspective turned upside down due to the correction. The medium-term perspective takes the downward side against the background of a general descent.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 21 points. In case of completion of the correction there may be a temporary stagnation, thus the volatility will be low.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100.
Support areas: 1.1180 *; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
**** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment.
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