12.09.201908:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on September 12th. Forecast on the system "Regression Channels". Britain publishes a document revealing the worst-case scenario of disordered Brexit

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 15.5306

Well, under the pressure of the British Parliament, Boris Johnson had to publish a secret document called Yellowhammer, which reveals the essence of the "hard" Brexit. Recall that a few months ago, some tabloids have already mentioned this document, however, then it was a question of the "drain" of information. However, everyone knew about the existence of such a document for a long time and even in general terms about its content. According to the Yellowhammer document, immediately after Brexit without a "deal", the UK may face violations of the supply of medicines, rising prices for gasoline and food, shortages of certain groups of goods, as well as riots in the streets. Also, most of the problems will be at the customs and borders of the UK with other EU countries. It is expected that up to 85% of trucks crossing the English Channel will not be ready for the introduction of customs control, and the work of all transport companies working with other countries will also suffer.

The most important thing that was not known before, the British government recognizes that it will be necessary to establish a physical border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, although the main stumbling block in the negotiations between London and Brussels is precisely that London does not want to establish a border on the island. Perhaps the EU government from the very beginning understood that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would be in any case, because it could not be otherwise, so it sharply rejected all London's proposals to exclude such a clause from the agreement?

Almost immediately after the publication of the document, there were claims against the British government. According to some deputies, Johnson's cabinet of ministers provided only background information on the issue of "hard" Brexit, while at the same time concealed the correspondence of the Prime Minister's advisers. The parliament demanded to provide "all available documents and correspondence in all messengers, social networks, email, information from all mobile phones; everything related to the current government, since July 23, 2019, and relating to Brexit without a deal." However, according to the head of government Michael Gove, the parliament's request for correspondence between the prime minister's aides is an unprecedented case, and the participants in the correspondence, according to Gove, will not be able to defend themselves in this situation. In general, no correspondence was made available to Parliament.

However, even the information that was published in the Yellowhammer document is more than enough to cast a shadow on Prime Minister Johnson and his statements. Recall that earlier Johnson has repeatedly stated that the UK will withstand the "hard" Brexit, and there will not be any special problems since the country's government will be able to solve everything and is preparing for an unordered exit from the EU. In practice, it turns out that the country may face serious problems, especially in the first months of life after Brexit. Moreover, Yellowhammer does not contain the long-term consequences of a "hard" Brexit, which has been repeatedly warned, for example, Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England.

As a result, the pound already has the necessary grounds for a new fall, but the fact that the "hard" Brexit has been pushed off the horizon does not drain the optimism of traders. Today, from the interesting information for the pound, we allocate only the consumer price index in the States. Well, we continue to monitor any information from the parliament and the environment of Boris Johnson.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2329

S2 – 1.2268

S3 – 1.2207

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2390

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair began to adjust. Thus, traders are advised to wait for the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up and resume buying the pound with the targets of 1.2390 and 1.2451. It is recommended to return to the sales of the British currency, not before the pair fixes below the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.