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EUR/USD
As a result of the two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday expectedly lowered the base rate from 2.25% to 2.00% and focused on the feasibility of further reductions in the event of changes in economic conditions. The Fed's forecast for the economy turned out to be neutral: for GDP it was increased from 2.1% to 2.2%, for unemployment it was increased from 3.6% to 3.7%, for inflation it was kept at 1.5%. The markets calmly met the received information, trading volumes were above average, that is, the closing of long positions, as we expected, occurred only without a preliminary price growth.
On the daily chart, the price reversal occurred from the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and the balance indicator line, the Marlin oscillator has already tested the boundary with the territory of negative values, currently remaining in the growth zone.
On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. The situation is much lower. The price remains fixed at yesterday's low to move lower to 1.0987 (in fact, this is not the goal itself, but rather the signal level near the lows of September 17 and 11), and then to 1.0926.
The negative scenario, that is, possible against our main one, assumes the euro grows to 1.1122 - here the advantage of the Fibonacci level of 110.0% as the target level has already been lost.
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