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The Bank of England finally decided to take its head out of the sand, and join the general race in the direction of more and more easing monetary policy. Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said that no matter what kind of Brexit, the refinancing rate would still have to be lowered. Naturally, after such statements, the pound went down, and investors recorded successes in the afternoon thanks to unexpectedly good data on orders for durable goods in the United States, which suddenly showed an increase of 0.2%. But they expected a decrease of 1.0%.
Today, there simply is no reason for the pound to grow, as expectations for macroeconomic statistics in the UK, to put it mildly, are terrifying. So, the final GDP data for the second quarter should confirm a preliminary estimate, which showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.8% to 1.2%. But besides this, data on commercial investments may show that they continue to decline by 1.6% year on year. That is, the entire first half of this year, investments are declining, which reflects the general concern of investors about the consequences of Brexit. Also, the number of approved mortgage applications is likely to drop from 67,306 to 66,450. The only thing that can cause at least some optimism is consumer lending, which could amount to 900 million pounds, against 897 million pounds in previous month. But an increase of just 3 million pounds is unlikely to save the situation, especially when it comes to a significant slowdown in economic growth.
GDP growth rate (UK):
The GBP/USD pair confidently draws a downward move, dropping below 1.2350 and locally sweeping to the area of 1.2270. In total, for three trading days we have more than 220 points of downward movement, which is by no means small, but still not enough to completely return sellers to the market. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the process of working out the oblong correction is in full swing, where the quotation felt a temporary support in front of it at 1.2280, slowing down the downward move as a fact. The slowdown in this case is a kind of regrouping of trading forces, where the amplitude can expand in the region of 50-60 points.
It is likely to assume that the temporary accumulation will still remain relative to the available points of 1.2280/1.2330, but there is a judgment that this process will not be long and today we will see a change in the picture, where two possible scenarios follow.
The first one, which is the main one, says that the downward move will resume, breaking the pivot point of 1.2270. The second scenario, on the contrary, considers the delay of the accumulation process with the expansion of boundaries, to the previously passed level of 1.2350.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
• Long positions, if considered, is better done after consolidating the price above 1.2350.
• We consider short positions in the phase of further downward movement, where entry is made after a clear consolidation of the price below 1.2270.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on the hourly and daily periods signal a further decline. In turn, the indicators on the minute intervals focus on slowing down, giving an alternating signal.
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