09.10.201907:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on October 9th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson remains the only one to see progress in the Brexit negotiations

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -161.2981

Boris Johnson continues to cause European politicians, at least, irritation and misunderstanding, and, at most, outright anger. Yesterday, the British Prime Minister in a conversation with the President of the European Parliament David Sassoli said that Brexit negotiations need to be accelerated, as there is very little time to sign an agreement. Johnson also said that he still wants a civilized and orderly "divorce" from the European Union. Also, Boris Johnson once again said that if the parties do not have time to sign the agreement, then on October 31 there will be an exit without a "deal". Sometimes it seems to us that a daily reminder to everyone (the media, the public, EU politicians) about their readiness to leave the EU according to a "tough" scenario is part of Johnson's plan. The Prime Minister talks about this tirelessly, although, as it turned out a few days ago, official documents indicate Johnson's intention to ask for an extension from the European Union, that is, the opposite. Moreover, it is obliged to do so by a law passed by Parliament in early September, just a few days before the start of the prorogation. Thus, it is not clear to us in what sense is Johnson's daily reminders. By the way, after the same conversation, Sassoli said there was no progress in negotiations with London. And earlier, this was stated by Jean-Claude Juncker. And yesterday, Angela Merkel delivered an ultimatum to Johnson on Brexit. And all the top officials of the European Union openly skeptical about the "generous and fair" proposal of Boris Johnson. Thus, it seems that the progress in the negotiations is visible only to the Prime Minister of the Kingdom, but not to the European side. Thus, the chances of reaching an agreement before the end of the EU summit on October 18 at the moment are almost zero, and we only witness new "loud" statements of the British government every day. The Brexit process itself is firmly stuck in one place.

Yesterday's performance of Jerome Powell left no trace on the pound/dollar pair. Mark Carney also did not interest market participants with his performance. Today, as well as on the first two trading days of the week, no important macroeconomic publications are planned in the UK and the US. Thus, traders will have to continue to rely only on the political twists and turns between Brussels and London, as well as a new speech by the head of the Fed Powell tonight. Possibly, Powell will cover the topic in more detail with the launch of the program for the purchase of short-term bills and report, for example, on the timing of its beginning or the duration of its functioning. Traders also continue to hope that the chairman of the Federal Reserve still hints at the possible actions of the regulator at the end of the month.

From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair resumed its downward movement and at the moment, there are no signs of an upward correction. In general, the fundamental background remains not on the side of the British currency, therefore, we have the right to count on a further fall of this currency against the US dollar.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2207

S2 – 1.2177

S3 – 1.2146

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2238

R2 – 1.2268

R3 – 1.2299

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has fixed below the moving average line and continues to move down. Thus, today it is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair with targets of 1.2177 and 1.2146. The bulls lost the initiative again and remain extremely weak, so purchases are not relevant right now.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.