22.10.201900:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. October 21. Results of the day. Everything goes to the sixth defeat of Boris Johnson

4-hour timeframe

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 134p - 198p - 221p - 241p - 142p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 187p (high).

The pound continues to feel just fine, while in the "coffin" of Boris Johnson's political career, the Parliament continues to hammer in the last nails. Not one! Boris Johnson did not win a single victory as prime minister of Great Britain. From the very beginning of his reign, and even up to this point, Boris Johnson insisted on Brexit in any scenario, most importantly, no later than October 31. For several months he was preparing the country for a "hard" exit, spending millions of pounds from the budget to inform all sectors of the population, a Yellowhammer plan was being developed for the case of an irregular "divorce", Johnson himself was giving out interviews at all angles, stating that he'd rather "die in a ditch" than delay Brexit again (this phrase has already become a byword). And all this ended with the fact that the Parliament at the most crucial moment, when Johnson agreed with the EU on a deal, did not even vote for this bill, but instead immediately adopted another one, which obliges Johnson to ask for an extension from the European Union.

Theoretically, this whole pun could still end with Britain leaving Johnson's "deal", as the prime minister will probably demand a vote for the agreement, which he has long and tediously discussed with EU leaders. However, this will not change anything at the moment. Brexit will be rescheduled unless the European Union refuses to do so. And the European Union has already stated that, in principle, it is ready to provide a new respite to London. The only question is the timing of this very delay. If the UK Parliament nevertheless accepts Johnson's "deal," then the delay can be very short, from two weeks to three months. If Parliament rejects the "deal" with the European Union for the fourth time, some countries of the EU will insist on a longer postponement of the Brexit date. Johnson himself is to blame for the fact that the Parliament dislikes him. Perhaps if he did not expel the members of his own party to the left and right, but tried to establish a dialogue with them, if he did not arrange for a completely stupid prorogation of Parliament, did not conflict openly with the deputies, then he would collect an extra 10-20 votes in his favor at the polls. For example, Saturday's vote to postpone Brexit garnered just 20 more votes for than against.

By the way, we also do not see any special chances that Parliament will give Johnson the "deal" a go-ahead. Most likely, all the same members of Parliament who voted "for" the postponement on Saturday will vote "against" the deal on Monday or Tuesday. The problem with Brexit from the very beginning was that it was not a majority opinion in the classical sense. Indeed, the ratio of votes 99% - 1% and 51% - 49%, in fact, both cases have a certain majority. It is only almost unanimous in the first version, and in the second it is practically absent. In the situation with the 2016 referendum - the second option. Accordingly, the British Parliament was divided into just two parts, and immediately into several parts, opponents and simply supporting Brexit, "hard" Brexit, "soft" Brexit and a bunch of different options for Britain to exit and absent from Brussels jurisdiction. And since, in order to leave the EU, one needs at least half of the votes of the Parliament, this is precisely where problems arise. Moreover, 48% of the inhabitants of the United Kingdom are against any Brexit. This applies not only to different segments of the population, but also to entire countries. For example, Scotland almost completely voted against, and if any Brexit scenario is implemented, it is preparing to hold its own referendum on independence.

Thus, any delay in Brexit will continue to have a beneficial effect on the British currency, which today, unlike the euro, has not even begun to adjust.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its upward movement with the goal of a first resistance level of 1.3140. In recent weeks, the MACD has often turned down, as it has nowhere to go up. The upward movement itself is almost recoilless. Thus, long positions remain relevant, especially for those who are already in them.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.