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Hello, dear colleagues!
The analysis of the pound/dollar currency pair will begin with the summary of the previous week, which the "Briton", with all the desire, can not bring himself into the asset in any way. Let me remind you that on November 4-8, the GBP/USD currency pair sank by 1.15%.
But tellingly, with the remaining unresolved Brexit and far from impressive macroeconomic statistics, the British pound feels more confident in the foreign exchange market than the same euro. I believe that technical factors play a decisive role here, as well as the movement of sterling in crosses, among which it is worth highlighting EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.
Do not forget about the election campaign, which began in the UK. It is clear that all its ups and downs, including various statements, the appearance of compromising evidence and the like, will affect the dynamics of the British currency. Given the speculative nature of the pound, movements can be quite strong and sharp, but at the same time short-term.
During yesterday's trading, we saw a vivid confirmation of this. After the emergence of information that Nigel Faraj was not going to fight the conservatives, the GBP/USD pair took off. Frankly, I do not see any special reasons for such strengthening. The World Faraj with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not an event that should help strengthen the pound. Let me remind you that, apart from high-profile statements, Johnson has not yet been able to achieve anything in the framework of the implementation of the "tough" Brexit, of which he is an ardent supporter.
If we identify the important macroeconomic events that will come from the UK this week, these are preliminary data on GDP for the 3rd quarter, labor market reports, consumer price index, retail sales.
Today, at 10:30 (London time), data on the labor market of the United Kingdom will be published, which will undoubtedly lead to high volatility in all pairs with the British currency. Those who trade the pound, I recommend being careful and very careful!
Now let's move on to the technical picture of the pound/dollar pair and try to find interesting options for opening positions. However, I want to warn you that today's important labor statistics from the UK can make significant adjustments to the forecast, which will be made based on technical analysis.
Daily
The first important detail that catches the eye is the breakdown of the strong support level of 1.2788. Although it must be admitted that closing one candle below/above the level does not mean its true breakdown. As practice shows, to consider a breakthrough completed, it is necessary to see the closure of three consecutive candles above or below the level.
As proof, following the results of yesterday's trading, the pair made a comeback and closed the session on November 11 above the important mark of 1.2850. Today will be a kind of "moment of truth" for the British currency. I would like to draw attention to the fact that yesterday's strong rise today may be followed by an equally strong fall in the pound.
I would not like to give any recommendations just to give them. The day for trading the pound is very difficult. As for my personal opinion about the prospects of GBP/USD, they look about 50/50. However, a little is more inclined to the bearish scenario.
Today, the nearest targets are at the top of 1.2870, 1.2900, 1.2970, and possibly 1.3010. The nearest benchmarks, in the case of a downward scenario, will be 1.2785, 1.2765, 1.2700, and possibly 1.2660.
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