14.11.201900:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Kiwi in flight: the main point is not to fall

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) turned out to be a surprise box for the market. Its decision not to change the current rate raised the national currency to an unprecedented height. Analysts fear that the kiwi's flight will not be interrupted again, since falling from heights is a rather painful process.

The New Zealand regulator overturned market expectations, refusing to cut the rate by another 25 basis points (bp). The financial institution left it at the same level - 1.00%. This decision triggered a wave of growth in the yield of short bonds of the country. As a result, New Zealand's two-year bonds soared by 15 bp, analysts said.

Such a decision from the RBNZ is explained by the fact that it wants to get the effect of the reductions that were already carried out before conducting another easing of the monetary policy. The bank emphasized that they were not going to shock the market, on the contrary, in early 2020, the agency intends to publish a document where it will present an alternative monetary policy plan. However, the market took this statement as a sign of the regulator's rejection of the zero-rate policy.

The news that RBNZ had retained its previous key rate immediately sent the NZD/USD pair to highs. The pair's quotes jumped 1.3% in a matter of minutes. The NZD/USD pair gained momentum on Wednesday, November 13, moving to an area above 0.6400.

Subsequently, the pair slightly fell, being in the range of 0.6393–0.6394. The NZD/USD pair did not stay long within this framework, unable to resist a fall.

A decrease in the pair to the levels of 0.6387–0.6388 turned out to be short-term. The euphoria from the RNBZ's decision began to decline, and after the flight of the kiwi after it.

The most difficult thing was for sellers of the New Zealand dollar. According to analysts, the NZD/USD pair showed the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. However, fortune soon turned its back on the bears, who were trapped in the sudden refusal of the RBNZ to further mitigate. If the New Zealand dollar continues to rally, the area of 0.6425-0.6450 will be important for the further rise of the NZD/USD pair.

At the moment, the pair is trading within 0.6390-0.6391, however, analysts do not exclude a further decline in the NZD/USD pair.

Analysts believe that the global economy is at the beginning of a new trend, which involves either maintaining the same rates or gradually increasing them. For example, recently the Federal Reserve made it clear that it intends to take a break in reducing rates. The RBNZ picked up the baton, declaring its unwillingness to rush in matters of easing monetary policy. In the event of such a reversal, world markets may lose their key growth driver, analysts said. This raises concerns among economists and investors. The current situation is favorable for the New Zealand dollar, but experts allow its change in the near future.