15.11.201910:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: And things are still there (A review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 11/15/2019)

The market continues to stagnate, which of course is associated with complete uncertainty, as well as the confusion that macroeconomic data is making which comes out completely different than expected. For example, the second estimate of the GDP of the euro area for the third quarter, unlike the first, showed not a slowdown in economic growth from 1.2% to 1.1%, but that they remained unchanged. This was partly possible due to German GDP, the growth rate of which accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, and not to 0.4%, as predicted. Nevertheless, on this, good news from Europe does not end there, as inflation in France, though, has declined, but from 0.9% to 0.8%, while they expected a decrease to 0.7%. And only in Spain did the data coincide with forecasts, and inflation remained unchanged at 0.1%. Thus, the real data showed a slightly more encouraging picture, and a hint of light at the end of the tunnel began to loom in the distance.

But all this is concerning what is happening on the continent, while on Foggy Albion it is cloudy and rainy again. The fact is that the growth rate of retail sales did not accelerate from 3.1% to 3.8%, but remained unchanged. Well, at least they did not decline. And then the British business already suffers from a headache in the form of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which promise either a guaranteed exit from the European Union if Boris Johnson wins, or tax increases and nationalization if Jeremy Corbyn wins.

Retail Sales (UK):

The American statistics, seems only positive at first glance, since data on producer prices were significantly better than forecasts. The truth is this is not surprising, since it was quite expected after inflation suddenly showed growth. Thus, the growth rate of producer prices slowed down from 1.4% to 1.1%, which is against the background of the expected slowdown to 0.9%, looks very impressive. However, this is still a decrease. Nevertheless, the joy that producer prices are dropping, but not as much as expected, overshadowed the data on applications for unemployment benefits, which, frankly, came out worse than forecasts. Due to this, it was predicted that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will increase from 211 thousand to 215 thousand, and in fact, it increased to 225 thousand.

Manufacturer Prices (United States):

In terms of published macroeconomic statistics, a rather interesting day awaits us today. However, there are fears that the market will continue to stagnate anyway. So, one of the most important news today is inflation in Europe, which, in theory, should decline from 0.8% to 0.7%. Nevertheless, if you recall yesterday's data on inflation in France, there is a possibility that inflation in Europe will remain unchanged. Of course this is unlikely, but possible. Along with pan-European inflation data, similar data are released in Italy, where inflation should still remain at the same level of 0.3%.

Inflation (Europe):

Perhaps, macroeconomic statistics from the United States will be even more interesting, which publishes data on retail sales and industrial production. And frankly, it becomes sad from one glance at the forecasts. Thus, the growth rate of retail sales should slow down from 4.1% to 3.8%, which of course will be somewhat offset by the recent increase in inflation. But not so much, because the scale of the slowdown in retail sales growth is somewhat larger. In addition, an industry decline is expected to increase, from -0.1% to -0.4%. Thus, there are no reasons for optimism regarding American statistics.

Industrial Production (United States):

The market is extremely sluggish, so you should not expect any sharp jumps, so that the single European currency will grow sadly towards 1.1050.

The dynamics of the pound looks even more dull than that of the single European currency, and therefore, you should not expect its serious growth, against the background of weak American statistics. Most likely, we will see uncertain growth in the direction of 1.2925, with a hint of a speedy return to current values.