15.11.201911:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The dollar takes its toll

The situation in forex changes in the blink of an eye and someone who is not ready to make adjustments to their views resemble a person leaving home in the same clothes at any time of the year. There is a high probability to get wet in the rain without an umbrella or freeze in winter in shorts. If in October the euro was confidently heading north due to the de-escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, reducing the risks of promiscuous Brexit to a minimum, a portion of weak statistics in the United States and expectations of the Fed lowering the federal funds rate, in the first half of November, the EUR/USD pair lost most of its achievements.

It is not known who will win the parliamentary elections in Britain. According to opinion polls, the conservatives are ahead of the Labor Party by 14 points, however, Donald Trump was considered an outsider in 2016. The US President threatens with new tariffs if China does not sign the agreement. We've seen it before somewhere. Relations between Washington and Beijing are built on the principle of "a step forward, two backward." Who can guarantee that the same thing won't happen this time? Disappointing statistics on the States changed to positive, and the Fed has already reduced the rate. This factor is played back. Moreover, if the eurozone economy continues to feel as bad as it does now, the ECB, according to Nordea Markets, will increase the volume of bond purchases from €20 billion to €40 billion per month in March 2020.

Dynamics of asset purchases in the framework of European QE

Thus, the euro has lost its main trump cards, and the problems of the dollar are in the past. Why, in such circumstances, the main currency pair does not move south? If the Tories celebrate victory in the early elections in Britain and Donald Trump and Xi Jinping sign the agreement as part of Phase 1, then it will be possible to return to purchases of EUR/USD. In the meantime, it's better not to try to catch the falling daggers, because the foundation plays on the side of the "bears".

It is unlikely that the minutes of the October meetings of the Fed and the ECB, the publication of which will become the key events of the week by November 22, will turn everything upside down. The Fed's position is clear. Most officials feel comfortable with the current level of the federal funds rate. It contributes to their goals of moderate economic growth, symmetrical inflation meandering around the 2% target, and a strong labor market. The split in the ranks of the European Central Bank has been talked about for a long time. That's not news. Another thing is the data on business activity in Germany and the eurozone for October, which will see the light at the end of the five-day period. Positive is able to support EUR/USD buyers.

Technically, on the daily chart of the main currency pair, there is a transformation of the "shark" pattern into 5-0. If the euro bulls manage to return quotes above the pivot level of $1.107, the risks of continuing the rally in the direction of the upper border of the downward trading channel and above will increase. On the contrary, the fall of EUR/USD below the supports at 1.0965, 1.094, and 1.091 will allow us to count on the restoration of the "bearish" trend.

EUR/USD, the daily chart