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4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p - 63p - 52p - 81p - 60p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 59p (average).
The British pound paired with the US currency began a rather strong downward correction (based on its size in the graph), which in absolute terms is quite small and weak, like all of the pair's movements in the last few weeks, when the GBP/USD pair is "sick" with a kind of flat. At the moment, the pair has dropped to the critical Kijun-sen line, which it has almost overcome, but it looks like the pair will slightly pull back in the US trading session. One way or another, the bulls did not manage to overcome the previous local high of 1.2975, but only pierced it. Thus, we believe that, from a technical point of view, there are now much more chances for the pair to continue to fall than to grow. If we add the fundamental background to this, which remains sharply negative in the long term for the British currency, then it seems that it is inevitable for the pound. Only positive expectations from the election results can keep traders from selling the British currency, which is set to take place after three weeks. It was with this factor that the pound managed to rise in price to the level of 1.3000. Now the bears need to successfully overcome the Kijun-sen line, which will open the pair down to the support levels of 1.2836 and 1.2818.
About the elections to the Parliament of Great Britain, until which, we recall, in another three weeks, it has already been written so much that it can not be counted. However, all this information, which, in essence, boils down to calculating the likelihood of a Conservative victory with the required number of deputy mandates, is now of little significance. No one can accurately predict how the election will end - no opinion polls and studies, no TV debates, no loud statements by leaders. Therefore, we propose to move slightly away from the topic of elections and concentrate on the question "when will traders begin to respond to macroeconomic statistics and why do not they respond to it now?" This is a very interesting question, as, as we all remember, last week traders immediately ignored five major macroeconomic reports from the UK, including GDP, industrial production, inflation, and wages. It seems that most traders believe that the current slowdown in the UK economy is absolutely unimportant, since Brexit will take place and all problems will be resolved by the mere presence of a divorce with the European Union. Well, or Boris Johnson, who, recall, has not won a single victory as prime minister, will solve all the problems. After all, the prime minister has repeatedly stated that Brexit is not as scary as the opposition and opponents of withdrawing from the EU describe it. He was talking about the "hard" Brexit. But Brexit with the deal, according to Johnson, is not at all scary. Yes, there will be a certain negative impact on the economy, but the country will conclude a huge trade agreement with the United States, which was promised by Donald Trump. We believe that such a development is unlikely. How the elections will end are unclear. If Conservatives do not win by a significant margin, then Brexit will drag on for some time. Trump's words often mean completely different from what they really are. Thus, the optimism of traders who rushed to buy the British pound is excessive and premature.
Well, from a technical point of view, we believe that the downward movement of the pair will continue. For this, of course, you need to wait for the critical line to be overcome, after which it will be possible to count on a fall to the level of 1.2836 and 1.2818, at least. We should not forget about the rather weak volatility.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair began to adjust. Thus, it is recommended that traders now consider buying the British pound with a target at the resistance level of 1.2951 and higher if a rebound from the Kijun-sen line occurs. However, we advise opening long positions in small lots, since there are still few reasons for the pair to grow from a fundamental point of view. It is recommended to return to sales no earlier than when the bears consolidate below the Kijun-sen line, also in small lots with the target of 1.2836.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
Support / Resistance Classic Levels:
Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.
Pivot Level:
Yellow solid line.
Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:
Gray dotted lines without price designations.
Possible price movement options:
Red and green arrows.
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