22.11.201900:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar could disappoint investors next year, while the euro and the pound might be pleasing

The single European currency could rise in price to $1.19 by the end of 2020, as the greenback is likely to weaken, UBS strategists predict.

"In recent years, high interest rates in the United States, aversion to the risks associated with a downturn in world trade, and US government measures to repatriate income have supported the dollar," they said.

"Over the next year, economic growth and interest rates in the United States will become closer to what other countries in the world have. At the same time, the uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election and the weakening influence of trading tariffs on Forex suggest a weaker dollar," according to UBS.

NatWest analysts recommend holding long positions on the euro, provided that Germany decides to provide significant fiscal stimulus.

"While investors are skeptical of Germany's budget incentives, we think they will follow. If we are right, then we will go through Germany's lowest growth rate next year. At the same time, the era of monetary stimulus in Europe is finally coming to an end. Other factors that bode well for the single European currency include a weakening of political risks in the region and a recent decrease in the ECB's deposit rate by 10 basis points," they said.

"A cocktail of three cuts in the Federal Reserve's interest rate, outflow of investments and potential US and Chinese deal is likely to weaken the dollar," Insight Investment analysts said.

According to them, this will benefit the exhausted euro, which can strengthen by about 4% to $1.15 next year.

Strategists at Merrill Lynch and Bank of America predict that by the end of 2020, the pound will rise by almost 8% against the US dollar and reach $1.39.

It is assumed that in the early elections in the UK, which will be held on December 12, Conservatives will receive an absolute majority in Parliament. This will allow ratifying the agreement on the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, and the country will be able to leave the bloc before January 31, 2020.

Recent opinion polls show that Tories are ahead of their competitors ahead of a key date.

Other reputable US banks also expect the strengthening of the British currency. So, Morgan Stanley advises buying the pound against the US dollar with a target of $1.40 and calls this recommendation one of the best strategies for the coming year. JPMorgan Chase predicts a rise in the British currency to $1.33 by mid-2020, while Goldman Sachs predicts it will strengthen to $1.35 in the coming months.