06.12.201909:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/06/2019 and trading recommendation

Fear is beginning to overwhelm many investors and manipulate the market. Another activation with the impeachment of Trump seriously worried market participants, because this increases the uncertainty, which investors fear the most. Moreover, it is precisely the fact that the Democrats intend to submit to the Congress a vote on the impeachment of Donald Trump before the end of the year that has undermined the position of the dollar.

If you look at macroeconomic statistics, it can be seen that there was no reason to lower the dollar. Rather, the opposite. Indeed, the growth rate of retail sales in Europe has slowed down from 2.7% to 1.4%. Thus, it is worth noting that a slowdown was initially predicted from 3.1% to 2.2%. That is, the data themselves came out worse, and the previous results were reviewed for the worse. We are talking about the largest segment of the economy, which makes the largest contribution to the structure of GDP. This means that economic growth will only slow down. However, estimates of GDP for the third quarter stubbornly show that the pace of economic growth remains unchanged. But for now, there will still be a slowdown in economic growth most likely in the fourth quarter.

Retail Sales (Europe):

At the same time, American statistics were more likely positive, since the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 41 thousand instead of 68 thousand. In particular, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits increased by 51 thousand, although it should increase by 55 thousand. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, instead of increasing by 13 thousand, decreased by 10 thousand, which is in anticipation of the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor. Therefore, there are no reasons to strengthen the single European currency.

Number of Initial Jobless Claims (United States):

So, today, the focus is on the very notorious report of the United States Department of Labor, and it is not surprising that investors are experiencing some anxiety and excitement given the multi-directional nature of indirect data published over the previous two days. Most likely, the actual data will not coincide with the forecasts. Nevertheless, these same forecasts show that almost all indicators of the labor market will remain unchanged. The only exceptions are the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside agriculture. Due to this, the unemployment rate could rise from 3.6% to 3.7%. This is also indicated by ADP employment data. However, yesterday's data on applications for unemployment benefits quite indicate that the unemployment rate may remain unchanged. Besides, 175 thousand new jobs should be created outside agriculture, compared to 128 thousand in the previous month, and only ADP data cast doubt on these forecasts.

The number of new jobs created outside of agriculture (United States):

From a technical point of view, the euro was not able to break through the level of 1.1100 and hangs around this level. The euro itself continues to be overbought, and in case of breakdown of the level of 1.1070, the direction will open to 1.1000.