10.12.201909:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Preparation for the race (EUR/USD and GBP/USD review on 12/10/2019)

The beginning of the week is more like stamping on the spot, although there is a reason to believe that this is just preparation for the sprint race, which should begin either on Wednesday or Thursday. But most likely, on Thursday, immediately after the early parliamentary elections in the UK.

However, do not think that nothing happened at all yesterday. After all, German foreign trade data was published yesterday, showing an increase in the trade balance from 21.2 billion euros to 21.5 billion euros. Although, it should be noted that they expected a decrease in the trade balance to 17.5 billion euros. This happened due to export growth of 1.2%, while imports remained unchanged. At the same time, a decline in exports of 0.7% and imports of 0.1% was projected. Thus, it seems like the data turned out to be extremely good. Nevertheless, data on the balance of payments, which decreased from 24.9 billion euros to 22.7 billion euros, is alarming. In fairness, it must be admitted that they predicted a decrease in the balance of payments to 17.9 billion euros. Due to this, the bottom line in the data on German foreign trade can be considered positive. However, the market does not look at them, because it makes no sense to look at the trade balance of the country with a chronic surplus of this balance.

Balance of Payments (Germany):

It is clear that the market will stand still at least until tomorrow's release of inflation data in the United States. And even today's block of data on the UK will not move it in any way. After all, the United Kingdom are waiting for early parliamentary elections to be held on Thursday. Nevertheless, it is worth taking a look at the real situation in the UK economy, wherein the forecasts are clearly disappointing. On the one hand, a certain improvement in the industry is expected, as the decline in industrial production should slow down from -1.8% to -1.7%. Certainly, just a fantastic improvement should occur, as the fall should slow down. However, the fall itself continues. But things are much worse with the rate of economic growth, since the final GDP data should confirm the fact that the economy has slowed down from 0.9% to 0.7%. The growth rate is incredibly low, which indicates the extremely difficult state of the economy of the United Kingdom, and the most frightening thing is that this is before the actual withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union. No less frightening are the forecasts for construction, which may show a decrease of 0.2%. Against this background, the projected decrease in the trade deficit from -3.4 billion pounds to -3.0 billion pounds can be regarded as extremely positive news.

GDP growth rate (UK):

The single European currency is at least waiting for inflation data in the United States, and as a maximum for the results of parliamentary elections in the UK. Thus, the single European currency will continue to remain in the region of 1.1075.

The pound doesn't even care about inflation in the United States, and it is solely preparing for the upcoming elections, since too much depends on their outcome. Thus, nothing can move the pound from 1.3150.