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Economic Calendar (London Time)
The first day of the week is not very active and important yet. At the beginning of the day, the most significant indicators of the economic calendar will be the indexes reflecting business activity in Germany and the UK (10:30). Furthermore, the focus of attention will shift to the results of stress tests and the report of the head of the Bank of England on financial stability (18: 00).
EUR/USD
It was not possible last week to close as optimistically as possible, as the pair returned under the resistance of 1.1145 (weekly Kijun + monthly Tenkan). Nevertheless, the situation, in essence, has not changed dramatically. Players on the increase still have to fight for the resistance at the area of 1.1145 to implement their plans, and then for the wide zone 1.1208 – 1.1289, where the main levels and targets of this area are concentrated. The supports keep the pooling of their efforts within the boundaries of the daily cloud at the upper level of 1.1080-90 (weekly levels + daily Kijun and Senkou span A) and at the lower border of 1.1030 (Senkou span B). The current support is at the daily short-term trend (1.1120).
At the moment, the pair is in the correction zone and is fighting for the key support of the lower halves. It's fixing under 1.1142 (Central Pivot level) and 1.1111 (weekly long-term trend), and a reversal of the movement towards support for bears will contribute to the continuation of the decline. In this case, the support of the classic Pivot levels 1.1085 (S1)-1.1049 (S2) – 1.0992 (S3) will become the downward reference points within the day. Work above the support 1.1142-11 will help maintain a certain advantage of the players on the increase, and strengthen their chance of leaving the correction zone.
GBP/USD
Last week failed to meet a close over the monthly resistances of 1.3350 (the lower boundary of the monthly cloud) and 1.3452 (the final boundary of the monthly dead cross). There is still the closing of the month ahead though, so there may still be. These levels (1.3350-1.3452) and the target for the breakdown of the weekly cloud (1.3675 – 1.3866) are now the main benchmarks and objectives for the implementation of the further bullish scenario. The nearest support today can be noted at 1.3248 (daily short-term trend) and 1.3144-67 (daily Kijun + weekly Tenkan + monthly Kijun). Fixing below the indicated supports will serve as the beginning of the formation of the rebound from the encountered and tested resistances.
The pair is in the correction zone, and in this situation, the players on the increase retain the advantage and support of all the analyzed technical instruments. The main task for players to increase is now associated with the area 1.3511-14 (maximum correction + R1). A reliable consolidation above will allow us to hope for a recovery and continuation of the uptrend. The next resistance within the day may be at R2 (1.3689) and R3 (1.3865). Supports that can affect the distribution of forces today are located at 1.3335 (Central Pivot level) and 1.3230 (weekly long-term trend).
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (50), Moving Avarage (120)
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