09.01.202010:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 01/09/2020

As soon as we recovered from the celebration of the New Year, Iran committed the most terrible villainy imaginable, having managed not to kill a single American soldier during the missile attack on two military bases in Iraq. Given that the shelling itself was a response to the assassination of General Soleimani as well as the absence of casualties among Americans conveniently located at these very bases, the United States simply has no formal reason to start a war with Iran. It's clear that it is such a meanness, because Washington has long dreamed of defeating the Islamic Republic. Thus, Iran should be punished with the most terrible sanctions, the development of which is already being dealt with by the brightest minds of Congress and the Senate. Moreover, the importance of this case is so great that the Democrats even agreed for a while to forget about the impeachment of Donald Trump. Apparently hoping that everyone will now forget about this very impeachment because of Iran, which every day resembles more and more the attempt of the Democrats to knock their brains out of a large-caliber weapon. And the funniest thing in this whole story is that it led to a panic in the oil market, which led to lower oil prices. Well, this always leads to an increase in the value of the dollar.

At the same time, as it usually happens, geopolitical fuss distracted the attention of the general public from macroeconomic statistics, which shows the real situation in a particular country. However, it still favored the growth of the dollar. The fact is that the volume of factory orders in Germany declined by 1.3%, while they expected it to grow by 0.3%. Although the previous results were revised for the better, and in October, the volume of orders did not decrease by 0.4%, but increased by 0.2%. But against the background of a significant decline in November, it looks somehow faded.

Factory order volume (Germany):

Now, if the single European currency was supposed to decline, thanks to weak statistics, then the pound should blame evil rock for everything. After all, Halifax data showed an acceleration in the growth rate of housing prices from 2.1%, up to 4.0%. And after all, this is data for December, that is, at the end of the year. However, the enthusiastic contemplation of playing with muscles of a nuclear superpower, and a small but proud country, possibly also with a nuclear club, led to the fact that no one paid attention to the achievements of the national economy of the United Kingdom.

Halifax Home Price Index (UK):

Nevertheless, we must admit that the dollar had another rather powerful argument justifying its growth. We are talking about ADP data on employment, which increased by 202 thousand, while expecting growth by 151 thousand. Moreover, the previous result was revised from 67 thousand to 124 thousand. And all this in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of the report of the Ministry of Labor. Due to this, the dollar had a reason for growth, and it can be assumed that the publication of ADP data was the justification for this very growth, which began somewhat earlier.

Employment Change from ADP (United States):

Honestly, it's completely not clear for what reason. Today, the market situation should be different from yesterday. The data on the trade balance of Germany was already released, showing a decline in exports by 2.3%, and imports by 0.5%. Moreover, it was predicted that exports should decrease by 0.5%, but imports should increase by 0.2%. Thus, the data is much worse than forecasts. and even indicate a decrease in the surplus of the trade balance. Of course, we can say that in Italy unemployment is expected to decrease from 9.7% to 9.5%. However, this is not yet accurate, as some claim that it can increase as much as 9.8%. But with all due respect to the descendants of the ancient Romans, what happens to them with the labor market there still fades against the background of foreign trade activity of the largest economy of the euro area. Well, the data on the unemployment rate across Europe will not affect the mood of market participants in general, as it should remain unchanged.

Unemployment Rate (Europe):

However, the United States continues to prepare for tomorrow's publication of the Department of Labor report. Today in the form of data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which should be reduced by 34 thousand. So, the number of initial applications can be reduced by 3 thousand, and repeated, by another 31 thousand. To simply put it, expectations are rather optimistic according to American statistics, unlike the already published data on Europe.

Number of Initial Jobless Claims (United States):

The euro/dollar currency pair continues to move in a downward cycle, where the quotes locally managed to hurt the value of 1.1100, after which stagnation occurred. It is likely to assume that downward interest will continue, but the fluctuation may be narrower, where the periodic support in the face of the value of 1.1100 is still preserved.

The pound / dollar currency pair, with the shadows of candles, found support in the region of 1.3080 / 1.3090, where the movement slowed sharply, after which a pullback formed. It is likely to assume that the quotes will be able to get closer to the 1.3080 / 1.3090 area once again, where it is worthwhile to carefully monitor the price fixing points.