10.01.202000:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBPUSD and EURUSD: Carney said the BoE is ready to lower interest rates in 2020. German industrial production growth did not save the economy from problems

The euro ignored news from the Ministry of Commerce of China, in which it was reported that Deputy Prime Minister Liu He will sign a first-phase trade agreement during his visit. As noted in the statement, China's chief trade negotiator Liu He, headed by a delegation of ten people, will arrive in Washington soon. The Chinese delegation will include the Minister of Commerce, the central bank governor, deputy ministers of finance, agriculture and information technology. Most likely, during the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement, which will be held on January 15 in the White House, questions will also be raised regarding the second, more important phase, which includes a number of conditions for information technology, as well as Huawei.

Also, buyers of risky assets ignored today's report on the volume of industrial production in Germany. According to data, industrial production in Germany grew more than expected in November last year, compared with October. Production was reduced in the previous two months, which is likely to lead to its decline for the fourth quarter of 2019. The report indicates that industrial production, which includes production in the manufacturing and construction sectors, grew by 1.1% in November compared to October, while economists expected growth by 0.7%. In the construction sector, the increase in production was 2.6%, while the increase was less significant in the manufacturing industry, only 1.0%. Industrial production declined by 2.6% compared to November 2018.

Apparently, traders ignored a good report, since the November growth alone is clearly not enough to offset the decline recorded in September and October 2019. Most likely, German industrial production will continue to decline in the fourth quarter, which will affect the overall economy. Experts note that to avoid a decline in industrial production for the sixth consecutive quarter, growth should be more than 3.0% in December, which is hardly possible after a recent report on the volume of orders in German industry.

Also there is a higher report from the World Bank today, which once again revised and lowered forecasts of global economic growth. This was done due to continuing problems in trade and investment. However, from positive expectations, acceleration of growth in 2020 should be noted. According to the report, global GDP growth in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will amount to 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China had a positive effect on the forecast for 2020, as a gradual revival of trade and investment is expected.

The World Bank also expects that US GDP in 2020 will grow by 1.8%, while the growth of the Chinese economy will slow down from 5.9% in 2020.

Today's report on unemployment in the eurozone, which could grow to 7.6%, turned out to be better than forecasts of economists. According to data, unemployment in November 2019 remained unchanged at 7.5%. The number of unemployed in the eurozone in November fell by 10,000.

The technical picture of the EURUSD pair remained unchanged, even though the bears pushed the euro to support at 1.1100. A breakthrough of this level will provide the market with new sellers capable of pushing risky assets to the lows of 1.1040 and 1.0980. If buyers of the euro manage to regain the intermediate resistance of 1.1130, a rebound to the highs of 1.1170 and 1.1210 is not excluded.

GBPUSD

The pound reacted with a decline to today's statement by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. In a nutshell, the central bank chief did not go around the clock and said that he had already discussed with colleagues the reasons for lowering interest rates. Judging by the statement, if the UK economy does not accelerate in the near future, the likelihood of lowering rates will increase.

Let me remind you that in December the Bank of England again gave a twofold assessment of the situation related to the economy and monetary policy, but many traders examined the central bank's hints for a tendency towards a softer approach. Today's statements have only confirmed this fact. I recall that during the last meeting in 2019, two out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to lower the key rate by a quarter percentage point.

Equally important will be today's vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit deal. If the House of Commons approves the agreement proposed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, then the bill will move on to the House of Lords. Only after its adoption, the UK government will begin to discuss a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, which I spoke about in more detail in my morning review.