10.01.202013:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Australian dollar becomes star of the market. How long?

By the end of the week, the currency of the Green Continent has demonstrated its best qualities. The Aussie became the star of the Asian trading session, soaring to record highs. Triumph was not prevented by further subsidence following the rapid growth, analysts say.

The driver of an unprecedented rise in the Australian dollar was the publication of positive data on retail sales in the country. According to a report from November 2019, the pair soared 0.9%, more than double the forecasts of economists. Previously, experts foreshadowed an increase of 0.4% and according to preliminary estimates, this is the strongest growth rate in the last two years. Recall that in 2017, this indicator rose by 1.1%. The current situation in the AUD / USD pair was taken by the bulls, seizing the initiative from the bears. This allowed buyers to partially regain lost positions.

However, in the current report, not everything turned out to be as rosy as previously presented. According to analysts, the December results alerted the market and can disappoint traders, experts warn. In the wake of this mistrust, the Australian currency went down again and is currently near the closing levels on Thursday, January 9.

Morning of January 10, the AUD / USD pair showed relative stability. It started at 0.6878, showing a slight downward trend.

Subsequently, the tandem dipped to the level of 0.6874-0.6875, continuing to run in this range.

Economists explain the abnormal growth of Aussie during the period of Christmas discounts when buying activity was at its peak. However, the time of triumph ends and it is time for a cold calculation, which suggests that you should not be too optimistic about the Australian dollar. Its current growth is due to the upward momentum associated with good macroeconomic data and is short-lived, analysts emphasize. This impulse is not enough to break the long downward trend of the AUD / USD pair, experts are sure. They do not advise to open short positions on this pair, especially in anticipation of the release of data on the American labor market.

According to experts, the currency of the Green Continent still has no good reason for long-term growth. The current report, which became the starting point for the correction of the AUD / USD pair, is not able to affect the position of the leadership of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in relation to monetary policy. Experts believe that the regulator will ignore the positive data on the growth of consumer activity.

Experts draw attention to the high likelihood of monetary easing by the RBA. The catalyst for this step can be conflicting data on the labor market in the country, published recently. The last meeting of the Australian regulator demonstrated that it is ready to further mitigate monetary policy. At the moment, the Central Bank of Australia took a break to assess the effect of previously introduced measures.