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Using complex analysis, we can see a bolt within the range of 1.1080. Attempts to raise activity were noticed, but it did not lead to any drastic changes. In fact, pent-up interest directly signals that short positions prevail in the market. Otherwise, the rebound from the control level would have been more significant. Comparing historical data, we see that the level of 1.1080 carries a significant role in the market. Interaction of quotes with the coordinator was seen more than ten times, indicating its exceptional strength. However, although it is considered the point of interaction, this does not mean that the price can not break through it. On the contrary, we can later see subsequent strengthening there.
Looking at the market in general terms, the EUR / USD and GBP / USD currency pairs, which have a high correlation with each other, once again reaffirmed their "fellow" status during the European session yesterday. The most notable point was that the EUR / USD pair, unlike that of the pound, fully recovered by the end of the trading day. It returned to the pivot point, which strengthened the judgment that downward interest prevails in the market.
In terms of volatility, we have an acceleration of 50%, as compared to the day before. However, in terms of the daily average, we have recorded a weakness of 17%.
Analyzing the past day by the minute, there is an upward surge during 9: 30-13: 00 London time. The subsequent movement was in terms of recovery, which almost reflected the analogy of the previous movement.
As discussed in the previous review, traders took a wait-and-see position, using the "Break / Rebound" method, where the 1.1110 point was locally touched by the quote, but did not bring the proper income, thereby reducing the position. Downward trades, which were considered the main ones, were not opened, since the price failed to fix below 1.1060.
Looking at the trading chart, we can see the price focusing on the first stage of the recovery process relative to the oblong correction.
The news background of the past day did not have any relevance on Europe and the United States statistically, however, due to the correlation, the macroeconomic statistics of Britain pulled the single currency. This is purely a technical factor though, as we have written at the beginning of the article.
In terms of information background, the annual world economic forum was launched in Davos yesterday, where participants discussed key bilateral issues, including trade, energy and cooperation in the field of technology. The greatest interest, as always, was the speech of US President Donald Trump, who indicated serious intentions to impose duties on car imports from EU, if the parties fail to conclude a trade agreement on terms that suit Washington.
"They know that I'm going to impose duties if they don't make a deal that is fair," the White House chief said. He did not give a specific deadline for when negotiations should end.
At the same time, Mr. Trump did not forget to criticize the actions of the Federal reserve, believing that the management policy was chosen incorrectly, since the rate was inflated very quickly, and the decline is very slow.
"We have to compete with countries that get negative rates, something very new, that is, they are paid to borrow money, which I can get used to very quickly. I like it," said Donald Trump
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the real estate market in the United States, where sales in the secondary market can grow by 1.3%.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we can see an attempt to rebound from the level of 1.1080. However, the price move is uncertain, so the pressure of the nearby level remains. In fact, there is a restrained nature, which can be attributed to the plus, due to the fact that accumulation is being made. This can result to an impulse or acceleration.
In terms of the emotional component of the market, we can see the very restraint of participants, where literally everyone is at a low start, and, of course, trading volumes may increase at the moment.
Detailing the available trading day every minute, we see that the night flat, with an amplitude of about 10 points, was broken at the start of the European trading session by local rising candles.
Because of this, traders have a small amount of long positions, but a restrictive order is attached to them. The analysis of the quote behavior and price fixing points is still underway, with special attention being paid to the value of 1.1060.
It is likely that the ambiguous fluctuation within the range of 1.1080 will continue in the market. Trading tactics remain the same "Break / Rebound" relative to the control level. Amendment is worth making, as the goal is to identify the main move, not the local oscillation.
Based on the above information, we will output the following trading recommendations:
- Buying positions are available in a small volume. topping up is possible if the exit is higher than 1.1125, not before.
- Sell positions will be considered if the price fixes below 1.1060.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we can see that the indicators on minute time intervals alternately slide due to the accumulation process along the control level. Hour and day periods, on the other hand, hold downward interest, citing the earlier measures.
Volatility for the week / Volatility measurement: Month; Quarter Year
The volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation, and is based on the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(January 22 was based on the time of publication of the article)
At the moment, volatility is at 19 points, which is a low indicator for this time interval. It is likely to assume that as long as we are marking time at the control level, volatility will remain low, however, as soon as there is a breakdown or rebound, we will see the long-awaited acceleration.
Key levels:
Resistance zones: 1,1080 **; 1,1180; 1.1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1,2100
Support areas: 1,1080 **; 1,1000 ***; 1.0900 / 1.0950 **; 1.0850 **; 1,0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1,0000 ***.
* Periodic level
** Range level
*** Psychological level
***** This article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustments.
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