29.01.202010:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Royal races (review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 01/29/2020)

Well, are everyone ready for the races? Has everyone already managed to take their places in accordance with previously purchased tickets? Yesterday, thoroughbred horses were taken to starting positions all day, which were located at technical support levels. However, the horses themselves behaved differently. Thus, the single European currency dutifully, but with a proudly raised head, obediently fell into place, while the pound showed self-will and obstinate temper in every possible way. Thus, in the end, I had to resort to tough methods in the form of a message that the UK allowed one very unloved by Mr. company from the Middle Kingdom before the creation of the fifth generation network. At the same time, rumors spread that the vassal would be punished. Moreover, just the other day, personally overlords, waving his regal finger at the nose of the vassal, in a soft, but persistent form, gave the order, so that merchants from the Middle Kingdom could not step on the territory entrusted to him by the Lord God. Nevertheless, either the vassal is deaf or stupid since it's hard to say on the hairstyle. So now, everyone is wondering what kind of punishment the heavenly overlords will send to the head of his vassal and this process is fascinating. The free flight of imagination can lead to such a distance.

The process of preparing for the races was so fascinating that no one paid attention to the joyful exclamations of the state bookkeepers, who brought good news to the overlord. Here you and the growth of orders for durable goods as much as 2.4% instead of the expected 0.6%. And the acceleration of housing price growth from 2.2% to 2.6%. From such news it was just right to sit comfortably in an armchair and wait with a smile on his face for the rapid growth of industrial production. After all, slaves actively go around the store and order all sorts of useful household utensils. And in more expensive estates. But the preparatory chores, as well as the gossip, turned out to be a much more exciting pastime.

Durable Goods Orders (United States):

However, even if the horses have already prepared for the race, the preparations for the race are still far from complete. It is also necessary to decorate the stands, let the audience, sit, distribute programs and deliver delicious drinks. Separately, it is necessary to prepare a zone for the subsequent slaughter, since without which, not a single high-society event can be considered decent. Moreover, no one cares about accelerating the growth rate of classic English estates from 1.4% to 1.9%. If there weren't all this fuss around the upcoming races, then that would have become the main topic of the high social class, as there would have been no number of rich people rejoicing that their real estate is growing in value. So, it can now be sold for a slightly larger amount than it was invested several years earlier.

Housing Prices (UK):

Apparently, the same oblivion awaits information on consumer lending on the continent. Nevertheless, this is probably for the better, since European moneylenders must sadly report a slowdown in lending to peasants and proletarians from 3.5% to 3.4%. And if all these stinkers are not so actively borrowing, what should honest loan sharks live on and who will then sponsor the next race?

Consumer lending growth rate (Europe):

Likewise, there is nothing interesting about the information of around a 0.2% reduction in the wholesale reserves of the overlord himself today as well as the slowdown in the pending growth of housing sales from 7.4% to 4.4%. Moreover, the first news is generally of little interest to anyone except the most meticulous accountants, and few understand the second. Although she points out to everyone that the number of these same sales should decrease markedly next month. But noblemen and ladies, do not intend to grieve over this matter ahead of time.

Unfinished Home Sales (United States):

So let's better talk about the races themselves. What can we expect from them? It is clear that the start will be given in the form of maintaining the refinancing rate at the current level. However, much more interesting is what the personal banker of the overlord will say. Although they are in a bad relationship with him, this does not interfere with work. So, many moneylenders expect that the refinancing rate will remain unchanged until next year and it will be seen there. This is of interest to all nobles, as their plans for borrowing money from those very usurers depend on it. Strangely enough, but if that's what everyone hears, then the race will be strictly down. The fact is that the main European banker somehow inaudibly explained the situation with interest rates. On the one hand, she made it clear that everyone is reviewing it now, and will review, but only by the end of the year. However, it is completely unclear where exactly they will reconsider. Anyway, she openly said that rates could also lower before this amazing and mysterious moment, which moneylenders didn't like. It's still easier with an island vassal, because in the homeland of Richard the Lionheart, where he spent only half a year in his life, a reduction in the refinancing rate is expected no later than mid-summer perhaps, earlier. But this will be known by the results of the second part of the race, which will happen a day later.

Refinancing Rate (United States):

The single European currency will decline immediately after the results of the meeting of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations become known most likely, due to relative stability and clarity in the issues of the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve System. Thus, the level of 1.0900 does not seem so fantastic. Most likely, it can become only the first stop on this path.

For the pound, the situation is even worse, as it is pressured by the expectation of lowering the Bank of England refinancing rate, which is much earlier than predicted. Moreover, rumors are already circulating that this could happen tomorrow. So the pound will decline to 1.2825. However, not in one fell swoop, but in small leaps.