18.02.202009:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Data from Germany and the publication of the Fed protocol is the focus of the market today (we expect a prospective decline in the EUR/USD pair and continued growth in gold prices)

The Australian dollar came under pressure in the wake of the published protocol of the last meeting of the RBA on monetary policy, which showed that it discussed the probability of continued easing of monetary policy.

Despite the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the key interest rate at the previous record low of 0.75%, the meeting discussed the topic of readiness for further easing of the monetary policy of the regulator, if necessary. In regards to the problems that risks the Australian economy, the Central Bank seperated the situation with the coronavirus epidemic in China, the inhibition of the country's economy due to forest fires, which could cause a decrease in economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, as well as in the first quarter of this year. The Bank also highlighted the risk of uncertainty in the level of consumption, however, which can be supported by rising housing prices and their turnover.

In the wake of the promulgated document, the Australian dollar was down against the American one by almost 0.4% at the moment.

The decline in the "Australian" currency had also a negative impact on the New Zealand currency, which has also been under pressure since the beginning of this year amid the situation with coronavirus in China.

Today, market attention will be turned to the publication of data on employment in Britain. The level of average wages in this country, as well as the values of the index of current economic conditions and sentiments in Germany and the eurozone. It is expected that the indicators will show a decrease respectively to -10.3 points from -9.5 points and from 26.7 points to 21.5 points in Germany. At the same time, it is assumed that the index of current economic sentiment in the eurozone, on the contrary, should grow to 30.0 points in February from a January value of 25.6 points.

First of all, if the data in Germany turns out to be worse than expected, this will inflict another blow on the single currency exchange rate, which is still under strong pressure amid clear signals that the economic growth of the first eurozone economy has slowed down.

In addition to the events presented above, the markets are sure to attract the publication of the protocol of the last Fed meeting on monetary policy today. Investors will carefully study it in order to understand whether it is worth expecting any promising changes in the actions of the American regulator in the near future.

In general, we believe that the current general situation in the currency exchange markets this week is unlikely to change significantly, since the distribution of net positions in the futures market clearly demonstrates, according to the reporting of Commitments of Traders (COT).

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD is trading above the level of 1.0825. Weak statistics from Germany will put pressure on the pair. Thus, we believe it is possible to sell the pair after its decline below the level of 1.0825 with the target of 1.0785.

Spot gold is trading above the level of 1584.00. We expect resumption of its growth to 1592.70 if the price consolidates above the level of 1584.00.