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GBP/USD - 1H.
Good afternoon, dear traders! Based on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair completed a rebound from the correction level of 38.2% (1.2933) and a reversal in favor of the US dollar with a close below the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2900). Thus, there remains a high probability that the quotes will continue to decline in the direction of the next correctional level of 0.0% (1.2848), which was designated yesterday as the second target level. At the same time, you can place Take Profit orders near the level of 1.2848.
GBP/USD - 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to decline on February 27, completed a meaningless consolidation below the low level of 1.2904 and is now set to fall to the bottom line of the almost sideways range. Thus, now, quitting quotes from this line will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth up to the upper line of the range. On the other hand, consolidating the quotes under the side range will significantly increase the probability of a further decline in the pound. Today, There are no new emerging divergences in any indicator.
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, quotes of the pound-dollar pair declined to the bottom, descending trend line, which can also be described as a support line. Thus, the pair's rebound from this line will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth. Perhaps, it is the daily chart that is most important for determining the prospects of the British currency. Moreover, closing the GBP / USD pair below the trend line will increase the probability of a further decline in the direction of the correctional level of 50.0% (1.2736).
News overview:
On Thursday, February 27, there was no news in the UK, and reports on durable goods orders (fairly strong) and on GDP (neutral) were released in the United States. The pound sterling, like the euro, did not pay attention to these reports. Nevertheless, the "bearish" mood of the traders corresponds to the nature of this information.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
USA - Change in the level of expenses and incomes of the population (13:30 UTC+00).
There will be no important reports today, but you can pay attention to information on the income and expenses of Americans for January. However, I do not think that traders will develop this data.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
The latest COT report came down to the fact that there was almost complete equality between the total number of Long and Short positions. As the pound-dollar pair continues to trade inside the side range on the 4-hour chart, we can already conclude that the balance of power between bull traders and bear traders has not changed much. Nevertheless, the new COT report may declare a change in the number of open positions among major market players, which will help determine the probability of the pair quotes coming out of the side range. Therefore, do not miss the analysis of the new COT report after lunch.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
The trading idea for February 28 is to sell the pound with a target of 1.2848. Further trading will depend on new trading ideas and signals that are not yet available, as well as on the COT report. Thus, the pair must leave the side range or rebound from its lower line.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private and large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for ensuring current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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